On Hokkaido time

New Delhi8217;s waffling on the nuclear deal for nearly a year had not just damaged the political reputation of the Congress and the UPA government, but the very international perception of India. The India-sceptics were quick to gloat, 8220;We told you so.8221; Their theme song 8212; that India can never say 8220;yes8221; to anything, even if it is in its own interest 8212; acquired a fresh ring of believability.

If India8217;s friends were frustrated at its meandering ways, its enemies were delighted. The cumulative effect was to suggest that India is not ready for global prime time; that it is too deeply divided at home to ever emerge as a great power.

Having outwitted the CPM adventurists and the BJP opportunists, the prime minister now has a bigger task at hand in Hokkaido. He must begin selling the Indo-US nuclear deal to the rest of the world. Until now, India, in true middle kingdom fashion, has deluded itself that the problem of implementing the nuclear deal is only about convincing one Prakash Karat. The rest, it has held, was simply on 8220;auto pilot8221;.

Given their manic obsession with the United States, the communists have been unwilling to see that the Indo-US civil nuclear initiative 8212; in its conception, scope and consequences 8212; was global. It was about changing the current international rules on nuclear commerce to allow India to regain access to the global high technology market. This in turn meant getting almost all the major countries in the world to accept India as a legitimate nuclear partner.

Nor was the deal only about India8217;s energy security, the size of its future nuclear programme and its contribution to the nation8217;s electric power generation. In its essence, the deal was about redefining India8217;s position in the international hierarchy. The current nuclear non-proliferation regime decrees by law that India is a nuclear pariah. There was no way India could not have accepted this fate as a permanent condition. The deal is about giving India its rightful place in the management of the global nuclear system and the high technology trade.

As India prepares to approach the 35-member Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, New Delhi has a great challenge at hand 8212; of turning adversaries towards neutrality, neutrals into supporters and friends into active advocates.

As a New York Times editorial revealed over the weekend, those who oppose India8217;s membership of the nuclear club have not raised the white flag. The caution from the Times against an international rush to implement the nuclear deal is likely to be repeated by some other leading publications. So long as the CPM and the BJP were blocking the deal, India8217;s international adversaries had no reason to step into the debate. The very moment that India signalled its readiness to make the final push, the opponents have come out of the woodwork.

The next few weeks are bound to see an intensive international campaign by the non-proliferation activists and liberal internationalists across the Atlantic to destroy the initiative, by simply delaying it.

India, in contrast, will need a lot more than broad support from the international community. It must have strong political commitments from world leaders for quick, decisive and unconditional endorsement of the civil nuclear initiative at the IAEA and the NSG.

There is no better place to mount India8217;s diplomatic effort than Hokkaido where leaders from many important countries have gathered for the annual G8 summit. Also present are the representatives of the five developing countries that have been regularly invited for interaction with the G8 in recent years. These are China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico. For this year8217;s Hokkaido summit, the Japanese hosts have also invited three important Asian countries 8212; Indonesia, South Korea and Australia. On top of all this, Tokyo has also set up a special G8 outreach to African leaders from Algeria, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Tanzania.

Building on the solid support from Russia, France and Great Britain for the Indo-US civil nuclear initiative, the prime minister will have to realise a number of important goals. He must encourage the Chinese president Hu Jintao to end Beijing8217;s ambiguity about India8217;s civil nuclear initiative and turn the silence of his Japanese hosts into active support. Manmohan Singh will also have his work cut out in overcoming the residual nuclear scepticism among the European powers.

It is no secret that many of New Delhi8217;s friends in the developing world are not entirely happy with the US recognition of India8217;s nuclear exceptionalism. They too need to be mollified.

The stage, then, is all set for a titanic international contest between India8217;s nuclear friends and critics. With so little time left, the action is bound to be swift and exhilarating. As Manmohan Singh embarks upon one of India8217;s most consequential diplomatic campaigns, it is time to fasten our seat-belts.

The writer is a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singaporeiscrmohanntu.edu.sg