The runaway budget

Few would have suspected that the Union Finance Minister had deep pockets but that seems to be the case when it comes to the defence mini...

Few would have suspected that the Union Finance Minister had deep pockets but that seems to be the case when it comes to the defence ministry. It is reported that defence expenditure is to be raised by a huge Rs 8,000 crore.

If true, the Vajpayee government is proposing to spend additionally an amount which is equivalent to almost a fifth of the defence budget for the current year. It is most unusual in peacetime to inflate the defence budget in such a fashion halfway through the financial year. So it must be put down to the Kargil effect. It was known early in the border conflict that the defence bill would increase because of replacement purchases and for purchases of new high-tech equipment to meet the army8217;s plans for year-round, all-weather surveillance of the LoC. The airforce too has a wish-list. Is the new expenditure for nuts-and-bolts stuff or does some of it come from an overcompensatory impulse or because new bogeys have arisen?

Does the government want to convey a political message? Cannot part of the resources be found within existing defence budgets by re-ordering priorities?Questions like these are essential for two reasons. Firstly, defence expenditure tends to be tre-ated like a sacred cow. It is a myth that national security improves in direct proportion to the amount of money spent on equipment and munitions. But that is what MPs who routinely demand more money for defence seem to believe. Whatever the perceived threat, the armed forces and defence preparedness can only benefit if Parliament takes a more rigorous view of costs and benefits. How essential are all the items in the Rs 8000 crore shopping list? It is a good guess that at this stage nobody will be able to say with certainty. The fact is the government lacks important inputs for decision-making and should not be making major financial and other commitments without obtaining them. Vis-a-vis Kargil, it would be instructive to learn first from the expert Subramaniam committee in what circumstances the intrusions occurred and to what extent poor human judgment and poor technical means let India down. Even more vitalto long-term defence planning surely is the long-awaited national security review. Senior members of the present NDA government have for years bemoaned the lack of a comprehensive defence doctrine but the lacuna persists.

A draft nuclear doctrine has emerged independent of an overall defence doctrine. If its ambitious plans for ground, air and seaborne nuclear forces are actually adopted, the overall defence budget will jump severalfold. And yet the draft document is entirely blank about costs. The hard reality of conflicting demands on limited resources cannot be ignored in a country of 350 million really poor people. Clearly when it is not considered necessary to justify expenditure running to hundreds of thousands of crores, a self-generating momentum had developed which will be hard to control if the government does not call a halt now and start thinking things through rationally. It is worth remembering that runaway military budgets have crippled many nations including one of the most formidable superpowers of the century.