After CPM, the CCP

During President Hu Jintao8217;s visit to New Delhi in November 2006, and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh8217;s trip to Beijing in January 2008, China has expressed broad interest in civilian nuclear cooperation with India. It has been mum, however, on whether it will support the US effort to change the current rules that bar such cooperation with India.

China can8217;t duck the issue if the Indo-US nuclear deal moves to the international stage which involves two steps. Under the first, the 35-member board of governors of the IAEA has to approve the safeguards agreement that India has negotiated with its secretariat. In the second, the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group will have to revise its current guidelines on global atomic commerce in favour of India.

China is a leading member of both the IAEA board and the NSG. It will have to take a position on the Indo-US nuclear deal, either for or against. Some Chinese academics, but not officials, have expressed reservations about the deal in the past.

While it might not like the warming ties between New Delhi and Washington, the CCP is fully aware of the political consequences of opposing the nuclear deal between the two. If China stands up against the deal, it is bound to lose out on the considerable political investment it has made in improving ties with India over the last two decades.

After the fiasco of the UN Security Council expansion a couple of years ago, when Chinese opposition to the Japanese candidature had the effect of blocking India as well, and the recent tensions on the border, Beijing8217;s open opposition to the nuclear deal will invite a huge political backlash in India. That will be the surest way of pushing India into American arms.

China will now have to choose between an early and open support to the initiative and winning some political credit for it in India or wait until the very end. Backing the deal when it seems inevitable will give Beijing no brownie points in New Delhi.

Tibet talks

That another round of talks between Beijing and the representatives of the Dalai Lama is taking place is less interesting than the fact that they were announced during the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice8217;s visit to Beijing over the weekend.

The Bush Administration has been pressing both the Dalai Lama and Beijing to embark on a productive dialogue. The engagement between the two sides, which began with an informal meeting on May 4 in Southern China, had to be suspended after the tragic earthquake in Sichuan a few days later.

A cynical view of the talks would suggest that Beijing might just string along the Tibetans until the Olympics are launched next month. Tibetans, of course, know this. They might not be interested in further talks if there is not much promise this time around. The question, then, is whether the two sides can do just enough to keep the talks going?

Cautious Karmapa

Remember Ogyen Trinlay Dorje, the young Karmapa? For a monk bold enough to escape from the Chinese custody in Tibet to India nearly a decade ago, the Karmapa8217;s ultracautious response to the recent dramatic developments in Tibet has been somewhat curious.

That he is recognised by both the Dalai Lama and Beijing may have something to do with attempted 8216;non-alignment8217; between the two sides. He praises the Dalai Lama for being his spiritual guru, but is careful to avoid any harsh words against Beijing. Whoever said Tibetan politics are simple and straightforward?

The writer is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore iscrmohanntu.edu.sg