Transition time in Iraq

There comes a moment in the history of nations when their history and future hangs in balance. Iraq, at present, seems to be poised precisel...

There comes a moment in the history of nations when their history and future hangs in balance. Iraq, at present, seems to be poised precisely at such a point of transition. The old order has changed and a new one is yet to emerge.

Some would even say that the shape of the new one is not even clear as yet even if some of the principles defining them have been public knowledge for a long time. The change itself is premised on the reality that it is being brought about by the use of military power of a foreign country which would take quite some time to exercise effective control over the situation. The fighting has not ended as yet. But it is also clear that regardless of the viciousness of future battles, having virtually lost the war, the old regime can only lose more lives even if any punishing resistance was to emerge in the short term.

The first challenge for the Anglo-American forces in this twilight zone between war and peace is to usher in a visibly more attractive alternative in terms of governance for the Iraqis. This requires security and humanitarian assistance to a suffering nation which has survived a quarter century of wars and economic sanctions.

If western reports about the continuing humanitarian problems in the small port town of Umm Qasr are correct, the task of restoring normalcy, leave alone bringing succour to the suffering people in a country of 23 million people, is going to be enormous. For the victors of the war, this could rapidly translate into a whole set of new challenges which could undermine their efforts to establish the new order. The ability of Anglo-American forces to enforce law and order in cities like Baghdad and Basra, now coming under their control, would become a touchstone of their role in shaping Iraq8217;s political structure.

Meanwhile there are other challenges to deal with. The Anglo-American summit declaration at Belfast specifying a 8216;8216;vital8217;8217; role for the UN would be welcome across the world, even if it appears to have come too late to deal with the basic problem.

In any case, any polarisation of the international community is unlikely to contribute to a more peaceful world, leave alone one that can deal with major global challenges like global terrorism. Washington would need to work hard to win the 8216;8216;hearts and minds8217;8217; of the international community, especially of developing countries, many of which suddenly feel more vulnerable, if it wishes to lead them through difficult times. Much, therefore, is at stake for the sole superpower in building 8212; and winning 8212; the peace, once this war is over.