Heartland palpitations

Yet, despite the obvious disadvantages, the BJP is hopeful, given the largely four-cornered nature of the contest. With the SP, the BSP and Congress unable to come to an understanding with each other, the BJP is better off than its rivals. Since a four-way fight usually squeezes at least one or even two parties, the SP too calculates it will benefit, with its RAM Rajput-Ahir-Muslim alliance. For the BSP, a Jatav-led Dalit vote remains intact but incremental doses of Muslim support are, as ever, an imponderable.

As for the Congress, the candidature of Rahul and Sonia Gandhi in Amethi and Rae Bareli respectively is likely to have a bandwagon effect and swing neighbouring constituencies. The big danger for the Congress is that an over-concentration of resources in the Avadh belt, to impress the Family, may hurt it elsewhere. The Congress8217;s potential to draw the Brahmin vote worries the BJP, just as the possibility of the party taking away the Muslim vote could disturb the BSP and, to a lesser degree, the SP. Yet the Congress8217;s biggest pitfall is that it has announced its revival simply too often; and UP, as its adversaries will testify, is the graveyard of reputations.