Opinion The Maoist slide
Is Nepal warming to the idea of a constitutional monarchy?
The Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) that heads the ruling coalition is fighting a desperate battle to save what it calls Nepals new identity of a republic. It has warned any move to weaken or remove caretaker Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai will lead to the restoration of monarchy,and the loss of all the achievements of the 2006 movement.
Bhattarai said publicly any move to bring him down may result in the return of monarchy. No one knows if he was trying to scare rival political parties demanding his resignation or making an accurate political forecast. But it sends across the message that the changes brought about by the 2006 movement are neither institutionalised nor consolidated. The forecast of doom comes in the wake of President Ram Baran Yadavs clear message that Bhattarai should quit,and pave the way for a national unity government to preside over constitution-delivery. The president has also stood firmly against the move initiated by Maoist chief Prachanda to revive the Constituent Assembly instead of fresh polls. Most parties,including the Maoists,are scared of facing the people and,therefore,want the House revived.
The Maoists are largely blamed for the current political and economic mess. Now the UCPN-M faces another tough challenge. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has released a 233-page report,listing about 30,000 cases of human rights violation during the 1996-2006 conflict spearheaded by the Maoists. Around 9,000 of these are categorised as serious,with some fitting the war-crimes description,with both Prachanda and Bhattarai vulnerable to such a probe.
The government quickly disowned the report saying,We were not involved in the preparation of the report. But the Maoists conveniently forgot they have welcomed such practices in the past when the UN body had identified some military and police officials as human rights violators. The table is being turned on the Maoists everywhere. Yet,they are trying to save their turf for which they need to retain power and be able to continue dictating the political agenda. So they fired the first salvo on Thursday,with a message for the president that even he will have to go if he insists on fresh elections.
To engage the people,Prachanda has been giving deadlines one after another the latest for November 15 to settle all contentious issues of the future constitution. But what can be easily said is that the tussle between the president and the Maoists will mar the festive season,with no political solution in sight. The Maoists may even create a situation wherein the president,in order to remain in office,may have to accept their formula,whatever it may be. After all,Nepals politics has been more of a give-and-take than leaders sticking to constitutionalism,or rising above partisan interests. The only handle the Maoists are using now to beat other parties with is the fear they are creating of the monarchys return.
In fact,even the international watchers see such a possibility. Johan Galtung,the Norwegian founder of peace studies and an expert on conflict management said recently,Many Nepalis seem attached to the concept of monarchy,a constitutional monarchy would give you the symbolism of monarchy and the regulation of a constitution. All these opinions come after it has become clear that political stability is the bedrock of peace and democracy as well as economic prosperity,and for that there needs to be a fine balance between the pro-change and democratic forces on one hand and the traditional forces excluded totally from the political process for the last five years on the other .
A group of lawyers and writers travelled through Nepal,advocating the return of the 1990 constitution,with a constitutional monarchy and political pluralism as the twin pillars of Nepals future polity. The response was massive,which was also a poor reflection on the four major political parties. There are symptoms of a rift within the Nepali Congress,with some feeling the need to opt for this line. But if the Maoists loss of face continues on this scale,and the tussle with the president worsens,they will not be the principal pole of Nepals politics any more. Moderate democrats and traditional forces will occupy that space once again,to the wonder of the world outside.
yubaraj.ghimire@ expressindia.com
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