Opinion A coup in Canberra
Will a new Australian PM change policies,too?....
On Thursday morning,just as Australia was coming to grips with the exit of the Socceroos from the World Cup,another drama was unfolding in Canberra. Prime Minister Kevin Rudds exit was a first on many counts. Rudd earned the distinction of being the first elected PM to lose office thanks to his own party,even before his tenure came to an end; his deputy for four years,Julia Gillard became the first female PM and was sworn in by the first female Governor General,Quentin Bryce.
In an extraordinary turn of events,Rudd held discussions with the Australian Labor Party (ALP) caucus on Thursday morning to chart out a strategy to resurrect his plummeting ratings from 70 per cent to 30 per cent recently. It is believed that,sensing the lack of support within the ALP caucus,Kevin Rudd rejected the idea of ballot voting and instead offered to step down. Julia Gillards explanation in her first press conference was that she had to step in because a good government was losing its way… and the Rudd government did not do what it should have done and at times lost track. It was a strong statement seen as vindication of opposition criticism of a government in which Julia Gillard herself had been a leading figure.
The unamused leader of the opposition Liberals,Tony Abbot,said,The Labor mafia has chucked out a prime minister elected by the people of Australia… its an ugly assassination. Labors website was instantly bombarded with messages like We want our vote back,Its disgusting,Cant believe how Kevin was thrown out. Rudd,in a speech about his achievements of the last four years,was flanked by his wife and sons and choked repeatedly while speaking.
His two major legacies are undoubtedly,first,steering Australia through the financial crisis,through tough-talking with financial institutions and quick stimulus packages; and second,offering a historic apology to the lost generations of Aboriginals within days of taking his oath of office.
Gillard faces two critical issues: the Emissions Trading Scheme and carbon pricing,which Rudd failed to get passed by parliament; and the proposed 40 per cent super mining tax which had an entire industry up in arms. She immediately announced negotiations with the mining industry and ordered the withdrawing of pro-tax advertisements. Still,as Abbott claimed,she did not seem too inclined to change Rudds policies over the issue.
Encouragingly,though,within a few hours,the stock market rose by 16 points and the Australian dollar grew stronger. Her decision-making in critical matters is considered more inclusive,unlike Rudds; but it is yet to be seen whether she can maintain this style when tough policy decisions will have to be taken on climate change,the mining tax,health reforms,education and the ALPs own internal reforms. Elections should be expected in two or three months time; by October or November the shape of the new government will be determined.
But what does her ascent mean for India-Australia relations?
Under the Rudd government there was a steady growth in bilateral trade and investment but at the same time ties were repeatedly rocked. First over the Harbhajan Singh controversy,then over the denial of supply of uranium,and then lately the attacks on Indian students in Australia. New Delhi should certainly hope for a turnaround in relations,and receive more attention than before. Even as the Mandarin-speaking Kevin Rudd underlines an added emphasis on and a heightened engagement with China through the establishment of a new AUD 100 million China Centre at the Australian National University,Julia Gillard managed a much smaller,but symbolically significant AUD 8 million for a new Australia-India Institute at the University of Melbourne. It was she who,in September 2009,following the attacks on students,paid a five-day visit to India to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh,and resurrect plummeting relations. While she may have sounded less than convincing when answering questions about the situation,her five-day long visit nonetheless underpinned the importance she attached to relations with India.
Should she be elected as Australias next prime minister in the yet to be announced elections,the key concern for New Delhi would be: can she reverse Kevin Rudds veto over the supply of uranium to India? If one goes by the stand of the ALP,it is unlikely that the party ideology would allow the supply unless India signs the NPT. But in the strategic community here there is a growing sense,much endorsed by the business community,that under the next government most likely still led by Labor pragmatism may override idealism and the supply of uranium may be approved before it loses its political and economic value.
The writer is at the Griffith Asia Institute,Griffith University,Queensland
express@expressindia.com
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