Opinion Neighbour’s envy

The administration announced that it will receive President Asif Ali Zardari in Washington at the earliest,and promised to schedule an Obama visit to Pakistan during 2011. The Obama administration also announced a new five-year package of military assistance to Pakistan amounting to $2 billion.

While it notes Obama’s decision not to travel to Pakistan,Delhi has reason to believe it means very little. So long as US troops stay in Afghanistan,Washington’s dependence on the Pakistan army will remain the central feature of our strategic environment. Delhi is fully aware that the US partnership with India is premised on the convergence of long-term interests between the two countries in the Indian Ocean,Asia-Pacific and beyond. India also knows that the current intense US

relationship with Pakistan is driven by near-term interests in Afghanistan.

The conversations between the Indian leadership and Obama are bound to focus on this conundrum: how do Delhi and Washington build on their common long-term interests,while managing short-term differences on Af-Pak?

Pindi’s focus

Reports from Pakistan suggest that the establishment in Rawalpindi will assess Obama’s visit and its impact on Indo-US relations using three criteria. One relates to Jammu and Kashmir,Indo-Pakistani relations,and terrorism. Rawalpindi hopes that Obama will raise,in private if not in public,the question of Kashmir,and press India to unconditionally resume the dialogue with Pakistan.

Rawalpindi will also look at the kind of statements that Obama might make on the sources of regional terrorism based on Pakistani soil. The Pakistan army is probably confident that Obama will avoid being as outrageously truthful as was UK Prime Minister David Cameron on his recent visit to India. Pakistan also wants to see the kind of formulations on Afghanistan that Obama might make along with India. Will he support a larger Indian presence in Afghanistan?

Finally,Pakistan is also concerned about what Obama might say about the Indian candidature for the permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council. The Pakistan army knows that even if Obama offers a ringing endorsement of India’s aspirations,there is no guarantee that the UNSC is likely to be expanded any time soon. Nevertheless,Pakistan would worry that a strong statement from Obama on the subject would lend some political weight to India’s aspirations to play a larger role in the construction of a new global order.

The Future of ‘parity’

Whether we liked it or not,the notion of parity between India and Pakistan had some relevance for the rest of the world,especially the United States,until recently. For many decades,India punched below its weight in the international system,and Pakistan well above its class. The differential economic growth rates of India and Pakistan over the last couple of decades has begun to break the foundation of this parity. Consider the following.

Since 2001,the United States has given nearly $18 billion in aid — civilian and military — to Pakistan. In 2009 alone,US merchandise exports to India were around $16 billion. The numbers are expected to double in the next three years.

On track to become one of the world’s largest economies,India’s relationship with the United States and the world will become steadily less unequal and more based on give and take. In contrast,Pakistan has become increasingly dependent on aid — economic and military — from the United States,China and the international community.

raja.mohan@expressindia.com