Bihar8217;s TINA factor

Laloo appears overwhelmed. 8220;Not long back, West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu had said almost the same thing,8221; he reminisces. 8220;But now the CPIM is gunning for me.8221; And then he changes gear, humming a film song: 8220;Dost dost na raha8230;.8221; Friends have ceased to be friends.

The mood changes all of a sudden, and Laloo8217;s shouting brigade is quick to take the cue. A nervous aggression replaces nostalgic references to Laloo8217;s lost paradise. Be it Janata Dal8217;s Karnataka Chief Minister J.H. Patel, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu of the friendly Telugu Desam Party or CPIM leader Harkishan Singh Surjeet, all Laloo8217;s detractors within the United Front are damned as 8220;fifth columnists8221;.

No holds are barred. 8220;Patel has brought disrepute to the party by bringing into the open his fondness for wine and women. An immoral man has no right to demand Laloo8217;s resignation on the grounds of morality,8221; thunders Vijay Krishna, MLA and Janata Dal8217;s Bihar spokesman.

The likes of Naidu and Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah are told to mind their own business. 8220;Laloo was not made Bihar Chief Minister by the Telugu Desam Party or National Conference legislators. If they are interested in the health of the United Front Government, they should keep their traps shut,8221; warns another Bihar Janata Dal MLA, Vikram Kumar.

CPIM Secretary General Surjeet8217;s insistence on a corrupt Laloo8217;s ouster provokes retribution. The CBI should probe Surjeet8217;s assets, demands Bihar Janata Dal General Secretary Numetullah.

Alleging that the Marxist Chan-akya8217;s sons have amassed huge wealth through the import export business since the United Front Government came to power at the Centre, Numetullah asserts: 8220;The Leftists are opportunists. In Bihar, they dare not face the people without Laloo Yadav!8221;

And therein lies the rub. Much as Laloo8217;s detractors within the Janata Dal or other United Front constituents wish to distance themselves from the Bihar Chief Minister, they are unable to find an alternative leader who can lead the Third Force in Bihar against the BJP-Samata Party challenge.Realising their dilemma, Laloo is prepared to call their bluff. He is soft on potential dissidents within the Bihar Janata Dal because he doesn8217;t want them to be lured by a a small bunch of anti-Laloo Janata Dal men tagging themselves to the tail of Bihar8217;s self-proclaimed Dalit leader and Union Railway Minister Ram Bilas Paswan. He is soft on Congress President Sitaram Kesri because he thinks of him as a potential future ally.

But he is not prepared to give an inch to those he thinks have stabbed him in the back, either by relinquishing Bihar8217;s chief-ministership or by giving up his claim to Janata Dal8217;s national presidentship for another term. At least 125 of the 165 Janata Dal MLAs in Bihar, the bulk of the MLCs and 23 MPs from the State in the Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha, are solidly behind Laloo.

Bihar8217;s Rural Development Minister Ramai Ram did harbour the hope of replacing Laloo as the next Bihar Chief Minister at one stage. But he failed to secure the attendance of more than two dozen legislators at the three meetings of dissidents he organised. 8220;Two dozen others have promised to come and the rest will follow when the charge-sheet is filed,8221; was the only thing Pashupati Nath Paras, Bihar Minister and Union Minister Paswan8217;s brother, who is marshalling forces for Ramai Ram in Bihar keeps saying.

Avisit to Bihar8217;s villages reveals that Laloo8217;s grip over the State8217;s illiterate poor has not been totally wiped out. The Kurmis and Koeries in Central Bihar had moved away from Laloo in the last State Assembly elections itself when Nitish Kumar and company broke away from the Janata Dal. But the Yadavs in North and Central Bihar are his militant supporters. The bulk of his Muslim support base is also intact despite indications that in some parts, Muslims may drift away from it. Former Union minister M. Taslimuddin8217;s outburst in Kishanganj that 8220;even though he did not back me when I was being charged, we can not ditch him now,8221; explains their viewpoint.

Harijans in Eastern Bihar are showing some inclination to go the CPIML way and in parts of the Central Bihar districts of Bhojpur, Jehanabad and Gaya, Laloo8217;s support base in the rock-bottom caste groups is subject to violent and virulent invasions from the CPIML and other extremist organisations like the Marxist Coordination Committee, but in large parts of North Bihar, they have no option but to support Laloo at present.

Laloo is conscious of his hold when he boasts that 8220;my poor and illiterate supporters in Bihar are not carried away by the propaganda against me carried on by the CBI-led conspirators8221;.

Face to face with the grim realisation that a Janata Dal sans Laloo is not a viable proposition in Bihar, the leaders of the Third Force in New Delhi are groping in the dark to first make a dogged Laloo give in and then find a replacement for him, 8220;preferably with his consent8221;. Their only hope is that Laloo will agree to hand over the reigns of power in Bihar to a trusted colleague like Union Minister Kanti Singh.

Ironically, Laloo8217;s continuance in office suits his principal antagonists in Bihar, the BJP-Samata Party combine. As a BJP leader puts it: 8220;For us, fighting a Janata Dal minus Laloo Yadav might amount to shooting arrows in the dark!8221;