Explained: Why are the Karnataka bypolls a prestige issue for CM Bommai?

The polls are to be held on October 30 and the results will be announced on November 1.

Why have the October 30 bypolls to the two assembly seats in Karnataka gained significance?

Two assembly seats in Karnataka — Hanagal in the Haveri district and Sindgi in Vijayapura district in north Karnataka — will go to the polls on October 30. Although bypolls are usually known to be favourable for parties that are in power, the upcoming election gained significance as it is the first electoral test for the new BJP Chief Minister, Basavaraj Bommai, who replaced veteran leader B S Yediyurappa on July 28.

One of the two seats where the bypoll is being held — Hanagal — is a constituency located in the Haveri district which is the home district of Bommai. It is also located adjacent to his own assembly constituency Shiggaon in the Haveri district. In the run-up to the polls, Bommai has called himself the son-in-law of Hanagal. The bypoll to the Sindgi seat is also crucial as BJP is trying to wrest it from the Opposition.

Why are the bypolls being conducted?

The bypoll to the Hanagal constituency is being held as the seat fell vacant after the death of former BJP MLA C M Udasi, 85, in June this year. The bypoll to the Sindgi seat was necessitated after the death of former Janata Dal Secular candidate from the seat M C Managuli, 85, who died in January this year.

Who are the candidates for the bypolls?

The BJP has fielded its Haveri district president Shivaraj Sajjanar, 63, as its candidate. The choice of Sajjanar, a long-term party worker, was at the cost of the Udasi family which has held the seat on multiple occasions. The Udasi family was hoping for a ticket for Revathi Udasi — the daughter-in-law of the former MLA C M Udasi and wife of BJP’s Lok Sabha MP from Haveri Shivakumar Udasi. The Udasis are considered to be close associates of both Bommai and Yediyurappa.

Congress has fielded Srinivas Mane, 47, who lost the 2018 state election to C M Udasi by a narrow margin of 6,000 votes. The JDS has fielded Niyaz Sheikh, 35 — whose candidature was announced several months ago.

In the Sindgi seat, which was earlier held by JDS, BJP has fielded its MLA from the 2008-2013 period, Ramesh Bhusanur, 61. Congress has fielded Ashok Managuli, 53, — the son of the JDS MLA M C Managuli who died in January this year. JDS has fielded a female, minority candidate Naziya Angadi, 34.

What are the electoral dynamics for the bypolls?

BJP is pulling out all stops to win it since it is a prestige issue for Bommai. A battery of BJP ministers and leaders, including Bommai, have been campaigning in the two constituencies for many days.

Yediyurappa joined the campaign in the last couple of days, giving BJP a boost. In both constituencies, the Lingayat community is a dominant factor and this is why it was crucial for Bommai to ensure that Yediyurappa campaigns in the polls since the former CM is seen as the biggest Lingayat leader in Karnataka to date.

Bommai has sought votes for BJP citing development works by the government like irrigation and water resources projects implemented in the two seats and in the names of PM Modi and Yediyurappa.

The Hanagal seat has not always been won by BJP despite a strong presence of the Lingayat community (nearly 30 per cent voters) which supports Yediyurappa. In the 2013 state elections, when Yediyurappa split from BJP and floated his own party KJP, the Hanagal seat was won by a backward classes (nearly 23 per cent voters) candidate from Congress — Manohar Tahsildar — who defeated KJP’s C M Udasi.

The former MLA, Udasi, a Lingayat, has won the seat on six occasions — initially as a Janata Dal candidate and in recent years, on BJP tickets. Congress has won the seat on four occasions since 1978 with veteran leader Manohar Tahsildar as its candidate.

For the current bypolls, the BJP has fielded Shivaraj Sajjanar who belongs to the Ganiga subsect of the Lingayat community and is hoping Lingayat votes will consolidate on behalf of Sajjanar through the efforts of Yediyurappa and Bommai. The Udasi family was considered to be a source of concern for the BJP after being denied a ticket in a seat held by the family on several occasions. The family has, however, reportedly decided to support the party’s choice.

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Bommai incidentally considers both Udasi and Yediyurappa as key persons responsible for his political career in BJP after shifting from Janata Dal United in 2008.

Congress has fielded a Maratha candidate Srinivas Mane for the polls despite Marathas being a minuscule population in the region. Mane lost the 2018 polls by a margin of around 6,000 votes to C M Udasi. He has, however, carried out a lot of work during the Covid-19 period in the region when the Udasis were reportedly absent. Congress is banking on Mane’s work in the region and divisions in BJP to spring a surprise in Hanagal.

JDS has fielded a young Muslim candidate Niyaz Sheikh in the region where there is a nearly 20 per cent minority population. Although Sheikh has been working in the region long before the BJP and Congress candidates were announced, he is not expected to stand a chance other than playing a role in splitting the votes of Congress. The region also has a sizeable population (18 per cent) of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. BJP has fielded controversial former minister and scheduled tribe leader Ramesh Jarkiholi to sway the votes.

In the Sindgi constituency, BJP and Congress have fielded Lingayat candidates. Nearly 25 per cent voters in the seat are Lingayats. In the recent past, Congress has not done well in Sindgi but is hoping to win the seat for the first time since 1999 through the induction of Ashok Managuli, the son of M C Managuli, a Janata Dal leader — who won the seat in 2018 and 1994 and was a runner up on five occasions since 1989. BJP candidate Ramesh Bhusanur held the seat in 2008 and 2013.

Congress is hoping for a fusion of backward classes votes (nearly 22 per cent) with a split in the Lingayat votes in the seat. JDS has fielded a Muslim candidate Naziya Ahmed and this could split the Muslim votes (10 per cent) between JDS and Congress. There is also a 17 per cent Dalit and scheduled tribes population in Sindgi and senior BJP leaders from these communities have been on the ground. During his campaigning in Sindgi, Bommai said the state will be drawing up plans for the development of many minor backward class sub-groups that are known to be in the region.