Opinion Crisis or not, IndiGo is too big. It will keep calling the shots
When one player accounts for almost two-thirds of the passenger market and when it is often the only carrier to many airports, the shoe is firmly on IndiGo’s feet. Not the government’s, irrespective of what the DGCA may claim
Will the questions being asked in the ongoing IndiGo crisis lead to reform or backsliding? (Illustration: C R Sasikumar) There are duopolies and then there are duopolies. Consider a hypothetical case of two firms, each accounting for 25 per cent of a market, with scores of other small players taking care of the rest. It is, for all intents and purposes, a duopoly, but with relatively constrained pricing power thanks to the other players who together account for half the market. Now, consider a very different ball game where one firm, IndiGo, takes up more than 65 per cent of the market — with Air India accounting for less than 27 per cent. Here, it becomes a brutal duopoly, almost veering to a monopoly. There lies the heart of the issue.
There is no doubt that IndiGo is an efficient and profitable airline. However, with its sheer scale and dominance, IndiGo always believed that rules could be bent in its favour. The DGCA initially introduced its Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) in January 2024. The aviation industry, led by IndiGo, managed to get this rolled back on several occasions. Eventually, FDTL was implemented this year by the DGCA in two phases, July and November.
The FDTL rules mandated: (i) 48 hours of weekly rest for crew — up from 36 hours; (ii) a longer night duty window (00:00-06:00); (iii) a sharp cut in night landings — only two per week per pilot; and (iv) a cap of eight flying hours at night.
IndiGo believed, as before, that it could sidestep these rules. Instead of preparing for these by hiring more pilots and reducing the number of flights, it decided on a “dekha jayega” approach, convinced that it could get away with it. It couldn’t, and was struck with a monumentally embarrassing crisis that it chose not to comprehend.
It will take over a month to get things back in place. But has IndiGo paid the price for intentionally creating this horrendous situation for its passengers? I would argue not. Yes, its CEO has apologised; yes, it is gradually reimbursing those who could not fly; and yes, it has cancelled and re-rostered several hundred flights. But, believe me, let some time pass, and it will be back to square one.
Why so? Because with over 65 per cent market share, IndiGo effectively calls the shots — with Air India as a convenient price taker. Will the DGCA seriously financially penalise IndiGo to a point where it hurts, as it hurt the hapless passengers? I bet not. Will IndiGo permanently reduce the number of flights to accommodate the FDTL rules? Well, already, the DGCA has given it exemptions based on a national mandate. Will IndiGo hire more cockpit staff to accommodate its pre-crisis flight timetables? I think not in the near future. Where necessary, more accommodation will follow. From the DGCA, in “national interest”.
The lesson is simple. When one player accounts for almost two-thirds of the passenger market and when it is often the only carrier to many airports, the shoe is firmly on IndiGo’s foot. Not the government’s, irrespective of what the DGCA may claim.
IndiGo has become too big to regulate. It effectively calls the shots. So, in a duopoly where one player controls 65 per cent of the market, passengers will have to suck their thumbs. After its righteous noise-making, the DGCA will quieten down. Come the second half of December and early January 2026, IndiGo will be back to having an envious load factor at high ticket prices — and thus deliver great profits for its shareholders.
Is there a near-term solution? I’m afraid not. This grossly one-sided duopoly isn’t going to disappear in the near or even medium term. Consider two simple facts: First, that air travel in India is growing by leaps and bounds, and will continue doing so over an increasing base. And second, almost two-thirds of this growing traffic is catered to by a single airline, IndiGo. Nobody — be it the regulator or the government — can credibly call the shots. And what shots can they call without threatening to recreate bits of the licence-control-permit raj? Perhaps the DGCA may force the CEO and COO to step down. But besides that, what else?
IndiGo will continue ruling the skies. Give it another month, and all will forget about the December chaos that the airline created. C’est la vie.
The writer is an economist, an independent director and chairman of CERG Advisory Private Limited
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