Election Results 2023 Analysis: BJP and allies back in power in Northeastern states, focus shifts to govt formation

Hours after the Tripura Assembly election results were announced, the Left Front and the Congress, which had a pre-poll seat-sharing agreement to collectively take on the BJP, were still in shock.

Cutting across party lines, Opposition leaders hailed the Supreme Court’s Thursday ruling on the appointment of the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) and election commissioners as a “landmark” and “historic” order. Congress leader in Lok Sabha Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, however, sounded a word of caution.

With the BJP-Nationalist Democratic People’s Party (NDPP) alliance in a position to form the next government in Nagaland, its chief ministerial candidate Neiphiu Rio’s unbroken dominance on the state’s politics will only continue.

Just two years after its birth, TIPRA Motha, the party led by Tripura royal scion Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma, has emerged as the second-largest party after the ruling BJP in the Assembly elections

The tribal party that rode the elections on the slogan of ‘Greater Tipraland’, has secured victory in 13 seats – all reserved for tribals, and has come second in six other seats. Greater Tipraland, which was initially touted as a separate state, was later revised as a demand for an ‘autonomous state’ as per Article 244 (A) of the Constitution, for greater legislative, administrative and financial autonomy than the tribal ADC currently has. 

While the Congress managed to win five of the 60 seats in the Meghalaya Assembly polls, the party’s state chief and Shillong MP, Vincent H Pala, lost to the ruling NPP’s Santa Mary Shylla by 1,828 votes in the Sutnga Saipung constituency in the East Jaintia Hills.

The election results threw up a hung Assembly, even as the incumbent Chief Minister Conrad Sangma-led NPP emerged as the single largest party. 

Congress veteran EVKS Elangovan’s victory in the Erode East Assembly bypoll in Tamil Nadu was expected but his candidature made ripples as he had to contest the seat following the death of his son Thirumagan E Ve Ra, who was its sitting MLA.

As he took an unassailable lead over his AIADMK rival KS Thennarasu after multiple rounds of the vote count Thursday, Elangovan, 74, told reporters: “This is a huge victory. But I’m not in a state of mind to celebrate. All I want to do is to continue the work left by my son.” He finally won the seat with a margin of 66,000 votes. Read Arun Janardhanan's report here

With the National People’s Party (NPP) emerging as the single-largest party in Meghalaya, it is likely to ally with the BJP or the United Democratic Party (UDP) — or maybe even both — to form a coalition government, in a repeat of proceedings five years ago.

Read Tora Agarwala's report here

With the BJP-Nationalist Democratic People’s Party (NDPP) alliance in a position to form the next government in Nagaland, its chief ministerial candidate Neiphiu Rio’s unbroken dominance on the state’s politics will only continue.

The alliance won 37 seats, with the BJP getting 12 seats and the NDPP getting 25, in the 60-member Assembly. Rio’s victory – with a 92.87 per cent vote share – from his stronghold Northern Angami-II was the most resounding win of them all.

His only challenger was the Congress’s Seyievelie Sachu. Rio has won every state election he contested from the constituency since 1989. He was first a Congress leader, then joined the Naga People’s Front (NPF) leader and is currently in the NDPP fold. Read Sukrita Baruah's report here

Assam Chief Minister and the BJP’s Northeast face, Himanta Biswa Sarma, is again the man of the moment, as the party looked set to return to power in Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya.

Sarma strategised the party’s campaign in the three states and also led the electioneering. Now, with Tripura and Nagaland in BJP pocket, he is leading the post-election talks to put together a government in Meghalaya.

A former Congress leader, Sarma has been indispensable to the BJP’s plans in the Northeast since crossing over in 2015, a point person for almost every political and administrative issue in the region. His decision to come down heavily on the drug menace in Assam is believed to have had a direct impact on the BJP’s prospects in Nagaland, and he was the “go-to person” for almost every party leader involved in the BJP campaign in the three states, party leaders said. Read Liz Mathew's report here

Five years after it ended the uninterrupted, 25-year-long run of the Left Front in the state, the BJP is set to retain Tripura, winning a simple majority after a hard-fought battle with the Left-Congress combine and the TIPRA Motha, led by royal scion Pradyot Debbarma.

No Assembly election in Tripura — which sends only two MPs to the Lok Sabha — had attracted as much national attention as it did this time, with the contest turning triangular once erstwhile arch-enemies the Left and the Congress joined hands, replicating an experiment that had already failed earlier in West Bengal, and the TIPRA Motha grew exponentially in the state’s tribal areas. Read Sourav Roy Barman's report here

With the BJP on course to cross the halfway mark by winning 32 seats in Tripura, a state where it marked a significant ideological victory against the Left in 2018, the next big question is about its leadership. Although before the elections the party publicly acknowledged that incumbent Chief Minister Manik Saha is its CM face, speculation is rife that the party may review it now that the elections are over.

Sources in the party said the national leadership was contemplating appointing Pratima Bhoumik, at present the Union Minister of State for Empowerment and Social Justice, for the top job in the state to “send the right message to the northeastern region as well as to the entire nation” ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. If the party appoints Bhoumik, she will become the first woman chief minister in the history of the Northeast. Read Liz Mathew's report here

Nagaland now has two women MLAs, with the NDPP’s Salhoutuonuo Kruse winning from the Western Angami constituency. The state, which has had 13 Assemblies so far, never had a woman MLA before Thursday’s result. Hekani Jakhalu, who won from the Dimapur III constituency, is the other woman MLA to be elected to the House.

For Kruse, 56, this election was her first foray into electoral politics. She has, however, long been an active part of civil society organisations, having served as president and subsequently advisor of the Angami Women Organisation. Her late husband Kevisekho Kruse had been an NDPP candidate from the Western Agami seat in 2018. At the time, he had lost to the NPF’s Keneizakho Nakhro.

Read Sukrita Baruah's report here

While the Congress managed to win five of the 60 seats in the Meghalaya Assembly polls, the party’s state chief and Shillong MP, Vincent H Pala, lost to the ruling NPP’s Santa Mary Shylla by 1,828 votes in the Sutnga Saipung constituency in the East Jaintia Hills.

As the Congress fought to remain relevant in the Assembly polls, Pala, 55, was left to do much of the heavy lifting. The Congress, which had emerged as the single largest party in the 2018 polls with 21 MLAs, was left with no sitting legislator after a dramatic exodus to the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC). Tora Agarwala reports

It was a BJP bastion till Ravindra Dhangekar pulled off an upset on Thursday. The 56-year-old Congress leader ended the ruling party’s three-decade hold on the Kasba Peth Assembly constituency in Maharashtra’s Pune district, his victory built on his superior network in the area and a united Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). He also benefitted from divisions within the BJP.

A former Shiv Sena worker who entered politics because of Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray, Dhangekar was a known loyalist of Raj Thackeray during his days in the Sena and later joined him in the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Dhangekar was elected as a corporator in the Pune Municipal Corporation during his stints in the Sena as well as the MNS. He is a four-time corporator. Read Ajay Jadhav's profile of Dhangekar here

Living up to its promise, the small regional outfit United Democratic Party (UDP) looked set to emerge as the second largest party in the Meghalaya Assembly after the results were declared Thursday.

A part of the ruling Meghalaya Development Alliance coalition, including the National People’s Party (which was set to emerge as the single largest) and BJP, the UDP had contested separately like its other partners. It was headed to win 11 seats, nearly double its tally of 6 last time and far ahead of other non-NPP parties. Tora Agarwala reports

With results to 49 out of 60 seats declared so far, the NDPP-BJP alliance have already crossed the halfway mark and are poised to form the government in Nagaland. The NDPP has won 21 seats so far and the BJP has won 12, giving them a joint tally of 33 seats. Further, they together are leading in another four seats. --By Sukrita Baruah

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Maharashtra has suffered a major setback in its traditional stronghold of the Kasba Peth Assembly constituency in Pune, where the Congress’s Ravindra Dhangekar trounced the former’s candidate Hemant Rasne by over 10,800 votes.

The Kasba Peth bypoll was a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress, with Dhangekar being the Opposition alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)’s common candidate.

Buoyed by the Congress candidate’s victory, which has come as a shot in the arm to the MVA, state Congress president Nana Patole said, “It is a verdict of people against the high-handedness of BJP which blatantly misused power and money.” Read Shubhangi Khapre and Ajay Jadhav's report here

The Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (TIPRA Motha), which emerged as a force to reckon with in the run-up to the Assembly elections in Tripura, is leading in 11 seats, chipping away at the ruling coalition of BJP-IPFT, which held these seats over the last five years.

However, considering how well-attended its rallies were, the electoral yield of the party, led by royal scion Pradyot Debbarma, appears underwhelming, especially after it appeared to have struck a chord with voters from the indigenous communities with its core demand for a separate state of “Greater Tipraland”.

Sourav Roy Barman writes

A margin of mere 18 votes led to James Sangma - a three-time NPP MLA and the elder brother of Meghalaya chief minister Conrad Sangma - to lose to the TMC’s Rupa Marak in the Dadenggre constituency.

A heavyweight, James held various key portfolios in the NPP-led government, including home, law, and power. -- By Tora Agarwala

In a nail biting finish, the NDPP’s second woman candidate, Salhoutuonuo Kruse has won the Western Angami seat by just seven votes. She will join Hekani Jakhalu as MLA in the 14th Nagaland Legislative Assembly, which is set to be the state’s first ever assembly to have women MLAs. -- By Sukrita Baruah

Conrad Sangma is all set to retain the constituency of South Tura by a margin of nearly 3,000 votes. BJP’s Bernard Marak has polled 7260 votes.

“Thankful to the people of the state for voting for our party. We are short of a few numbers so we will wait for the final results to come out, and we will decide how to go forward," Sangma told reporters.

In a personal victory for West Bengal Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, the party Thursday looked set to wrest the Trinamool Congress stronghold of Sagardighi Assembly seat, in a bypoll. Chowdhury skipped the Congress plenary session to focus on campaigning for the seat which falls in his citadel of Murshidabad. The party fought the poll in alliance with the Left Front.

Read excerpts from Chowdhury's interview with Manoj C G here

On Thursday, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP)’s Hekani Jakhalu became the first ever woman to be elected to the Nagaland Legislative Assembly.

Though the state has had 13 state Assemblies so far, not one woman has been elected as an MLA till date. As counting was underway in the state on Thursday afternoon, Jakhalu was the sixth person to be officially declared winner by the Election Commission of India.

She received 45.16 per cent of the 31,874 votes in the constituency, just ahead of the Lok Jansakthi Party (Ram Vilas Paswan)’s Azheto Zhimomi, who received 40.34 per cent of the votes. The contest was neck and neck to the finish, with the numbers constantly see-sawing between the two.

For 48-year-old Jakhalu, it has been a long road to the Assembly. Read Sukrita Baruah's report here

The BJP is on its way to forming the government with a single majority for the second consecutive term in Tripura. -- By Debraj Deb

Incumbent Chief Minister and the NDPP-BJP alliance’s Chief Ministerial candidate Neiphiu Rio wins with a thumping majority from his stronghold, the Northern Angami II constituency. His only challenger was the Congress’ Seyievelie Sachu and he has won with a 92.87% vote share. -- By Sukrita Baruah

BJP Nagaland President and social media sensation Temjen Imna Along wins from Alongtaki constituency after appearing to be on a backfoot this morning. He finally had a commanding win, beating the JDU’s J Lanu Longchar by 3748 votes. -- By Sukrita Baruah

The Congress’s performance in the Northeast elections was far below its own expectations, with only bye-election results in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal bringing it some cheer. 

Though the party’s performance in the Tripura and Meghalaya Assembly elections was not up to its expectations, the party can draw some hope from winning a handful of seats in Tripura, where it had drawn a blank last time, and maintaining some presence in the Meghalaya Assembly. In Nagaland, the party did not have much hope. Read Manoj C G's report

Former minister from the NDPP, Neiba Kronu, has lost from the Pfutsero constituency to Independent candidate Naisatuo Mero by 104 votes. Kronu was Minister of Planning and Coordination and the spokesperson in the last Neiphiu Rio government. -- Sukrita Baruah

Tripura Chief Minister Manik Saha has emerged victorious with a margin of 1,180 votes at Town Bardowali constituency against Congress candidate Ashish Kumar Saha after the end of the sixth and final round of counting.

Postal ballots are still being counted but overall, CM Saha has managed to retain the seat. He had won from the seat in a by-election last year. It was his first ever Assembly victory after he replaced his predecessor Biplab Kumar Deb in a swift reshuffle, the reasons of which are yet to be explained. -- Debraj Deb

Hekani Jakhalu—the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate from Dimapur III—has become the first woman to be elected to the Nagaland Legislative Assembly.

Though the state has had 13 state Assemblies so far, not one woman has been elected to this position so far. On Thursday afternoon as counting is underway in the state, Jakhalu was the sixth person to be officially declared winner in Nagaland by the Election Commission of India.

Of 31,874 votes counted in the constituency, she received 45.16% of the votes, just ahead of the LJP (RV)’s Azheto Zhimomi who received 40.34% votes. -- Sukrita Baruah

The only IPFT candidate to have taken a lead is Shuklacharan Noatia at Jolaibari assembly constituency in South Tripura. He is leading with 375 votes over CPI(M) candidate Debendra Tripura.

BJP’s alliance partner IPFT contested in 6 seats and is leading in 1, with a much poorer performance compared to 2018 Assembly polls when the tribal party contested in 9 seats and won in 8, eventually forming government in alliance with BJP. -- Debraj Deb

TIPRA Motha, which emerged as a force to reckon in the run up the Assembly elections in Tripura, is leading in 11 seats. But the party's hope to play the role of a kingmaker in the event of a hung Assembly appears increasingly dim as the BJP has surged past the halfway mark of 31 seats on its own.

However, the BJP has kept a contingency plan ready in the event of its numbers settling below 31 by extending an olive branch to Pradyot saying all his demands, except "Greater Tipraland", will be met.  -- Sourav Roy Barman

Bimanjoy Reang, the only independent candidate has a lead in Tripura Assembly polls as of now. He has a 208 vote margin at Kanchanpur seat in North Tripura over CPI(M) candidate Rajendra Reang.

Bimanjoy Reang is learnt to be a BJP supporter who contested as an Independent candidate in the seat, against alliance partner IPFT’s heavyweight candidate and sitting minister Prem Kumar Reang. Prem Kumar has secured 2521 votes with 7.14 percent vote share, as against 26.55 percent vote share in favour of BJP and 26.49 percent votes in favour of opposition CPI(M). -- Debraj Deb

At 12:30 pm, the ECI finally released trends from all 60 seats in Nagaland. While the BJP has already officially registered wins in 2 constituencies, it is leading in another 11 which means that it is ahead in 13 out of the 20 constituencies in which it is contesting. The NDPP has registered one official win and is leading in another 25 seats. This means that the NDPP-BJP alliance is in a dominant position right now, ahead in 39 out of 60 seats. If these trends continue, the alliance will comfortably be in a position to form the government. -- Sukrita Baruah

The tally of CPI(M), which won 16 seats in the 2018 assembly polls in Tripura, is set to shrink further. As of now, the party, which ruled Tripura uninterruptedly between 1993-2018, may end up with 12 seats, while the Congress is leading in four seats. The Left Front and the Congress contested the polls under a seat-sharing arrangement. -- Sourav Roy Barman

Ahead of results in Tripura and Meghalaya, the possibility of a hung Assembly in the two states saw hectic backroom meetings in both the ruling and Opposition camps. 

While the BJP’s national leadership and senior leaders in the Northeast were contemplating the next steps if the party fell short of a majority in Tripura, though the party seemed headed for a simple majority, they were also considering various options in Meghalaya. The ruling National People’s Party (NPP) is leading in the early trends in Meghalaya, but whether it would get a clear majority in the 60-member Assembly remains unclear. Liz Mathew reports

Likely to improve its tally from the 2018 polls, where it won only 2 seats, the BJP is leading in five seats in Meghalaya, as per early trends. In 2018, at two seats and 9.63 per cent of the votes, the BJP found itself in the ruling Meghalaya Development Alliance ruling coalition because Conrad Sangma’s NPP fell short of a majority. 

This election, which it contested separately, it is hoping to make more of an impression but remains bogged down principally due to the fear in the Christian-dominated state that it is anti-minority. However, if it actually wins in the five seats it is leading in currently, it may be said that there has been a slight shift and the party has gained some acceptability in the past five years. -- Tora Agarwala

Mamata Banerjee’s TMC, which led a vigorous campaign in the run-up to the elections, is currently leading in five seats. Former chief minister and face of the TMC, Mukul Sangma, is trailing in one of two seats he contested.  

Nowhere in the picture after the 2018 elections, the party with zero seats had overnight emerged as the principal Opposition after 12 MLAs, led by Sangma, of the Congress changed sides to it. The parties entire campaign was centred on Sangma’s — among the most prominent names in Meghalaya politics in recent decades — leadership. However, beyond his personal appeal, the party has little else to show, as early trends show.

A very close fight is panning out in Meghalaya's key urban constituency East Shillong. Former leader of Congress legislator party, a three-time MLA and heavyweight, Amapareen Lyngdoh, who is now contesting from the NPP, is leading but only by three votes. Giving her a tough fight is Congress’s Manuel Badwar, a former marketing consultant and IIM-Calcutta graduate. Badwar is among the many first timers the Congress has fielded this election, after being badly hit by a series of defections. The party, which struggled to find suitable candidates for all 60 seats, ended up fielding a majority of greenhorns, many of whom are under 45 years of age. -- Tora Agarwala

TIPRA Motha, which is contesting for the first time in Assembly elections in Tripura this year, is leading in 12 seats as of now. The royal scion Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma-led party has got its first victory announced from Simna ST reserved seat in West Tripura where Brishaketu Debbarma, was announced victorious with a margin of 16,485 votes above CPIM candidate Kumodh Debbarna, who secured 5,679 votes. Brishaketu as an IPFT MLA in 2018 but shifted to Motha in 2021 and lost his Assembly membership.

Union Minister of State for Social Empowerment Justice Pratima Bhoumik is leading at Dhanpur assembly constituency in Sepahijala district with a margin of 1,302 votes above CPIM candidate Kaushik Chanda who is deuting from the seat after former CM and Oppostion leader Manik Sarkar stepped down from contesting in assembly polls this year. -- Debraj Deb

If the poll trends are anything to go by, the Left-Congress alliance in Tripura has performed along expected lines and is currently leading in 14 seats. Having failed to win any seats last time, the Congress is leading in five seats as per the latest figures from the Election Commission (EC). The exit polls predicted the Left-Congress alliance to end up with about 16 constituencies.     

The CPI(M)-led Left Front contested 47 seats, with the Congress fighting the remaining 13 as part of the first-ever seat-sharing partnership between the two parties in Tripura. In the past, the CPI(M) and the Congress had been arch rivals with a bitter history of violence. The two parties however came together this time on the plank of “restoration of democracy and rule of law” in the state, alleging that the same was subverted on the BJP’s watch. -- Debraj Deb

Cabinet Minister of Home, District Council Affairs, Food Civil Supplies & Consumer Affairs, Law, Power and Chief Minister Conrad Sangma’s brother, James Sangma is trailing in Garo Hills, according to latest trends.

BJP’s national spokesperson in Nagaland, Mmhonlumo Kikon, is trailing from Wokha. -- Esha Roy

Latest trend analysis shows BJP has shot back to the top, leading in 32 seats in Tripura. The CPIM is leading in 9, Congress is leading in 5 seats and the TIPRA Motha party is leading in 12 seats. ‘Other’ candidates are leading in 2 seats. -- Debraj Deb

The first official result for the day from Nagaland has been declared in which the BJP’s candidate, P. Bashangmongba Chang, has been declared winner from the Tuensang Sadar-1 constituency.

After the counting of  19,148 votes in the constituency, Chang received 63.3% of the votes. The NCP’s Toyang Chang has come in second with 35.03% votes.

This takes the BJP’s tally up to 2 wins already since Kazheto Kinimi is the unopposed winner from Akuluto constituency. -- Sukrita Baruah reports

Tripura's incumbent Chief Minister Manik Saha is leading with 1,321 votes above Congress candidate Ashish Kumar Sahah at Town Bardowali seat after fifth round of counting, cementing possibilities of a clear win for the CM. -- Debraj Deb

Manik Saha, whose selection as CM last year by the BJP in a surprise move, after getting Biplab Kumar Deb to step down, won the seat in a bypoll last year. It was his first-ever Assembly election win, making him a virtual greenhorn despite being the CM. Read more about the Town Bardowali battle here

The United Democratic Party, the largest of all regional parties in the state, and also a constituent of the incumbent MDA government is currently leading in seven seats. Formed in 1997 as an offshoot of the Meghalaya statehood movement, the party is expected to play kingmaker once again.

Ahead of the election, the UDP has been emphasising on the  the need for a “regional” party representing aspirations of jaitbynriew (Khasi-Jaintia tribes) to helm Meghalaya. Given its kingmaker reputation, many parties have been courting it ahead of the elections. -- Tora Agarwala

As per early trends, the Congress, which was hit by multiple desertions, is leading in six seats. With no incumbent MLAs and fielding a majority of greenhorns, the party’s performance has not been as bad as many feared. However, the party’s face and president Vincent Pala is trailing from the Sutnga Saipung constituency. -- Tora Agarwala

Things are looking hopeful for the Congress in Nagaland’s Mongoya constituency where its candidate Supongmeren Jamir was in a comfortable lead of 2,128 votes as of 11:08 am. The party, which is trying to fight its way back from zero seats and a 1.07% vote share in 2018, is only contesting in 23 seats. Mongoya is the only seat in which it is leading so far. Here, its candidate currently has 63.81% of votes, while the NDPP’s Imkongmar is behind with 26.27% of votes. -- Sukrita Baruah

An interesting trend has emerged in Meghalaya with the newly-formed Voice of the People Party (VPP) leading in four seats, including Mawlai, one of the largest constituencies in Meghalaya.

The VPP was formed just months before the election, and has fielded several first-timers with the stated aim of bringing “political change and to bring clean politics in Meghalaya.” --  Tora Agarwala

As of 10: 38 am, ECI issued trends in 37 seats showing the LJP (RV) leading in 3 seats and the RPI (A) leading in two. The trends show the LJP (RV) leading  in Aghunato, Dimapur III and Pughoboto and the RPI (A) in Noksen and Tuensang Sadar-II. Both these parties are first time entrants in Nagaland Legislative Assembly elections but have banked on fielding candidates who are experienced hands who have been denied tickets by other parties. For instance, the Azheto Zhimomim, who is LJP (RV) candidate from Dimapur III and is currently leading in the seat, is the incumbent MLA who had been denied a ticket by the NDPP.

The leads for these parties are also significant because even before voting went underway, they declared their support for the BJP in the state, even though the BJP is only in a formal pre-poll alliance with the NDPP. -- Sukrita Baruah

As per early trends, former chief minister Mukul Sangma is trailing in the Tikrikilla constituency in the Garo Hills, one of the two seats he is contesting this election. The other seat is Songsak. The incumbent MLA, NPP’s Jimmy Sangma, is leading in Tikrikilla.

Jimmy was earlier in the Congress, and switched over to the TMC in November 2021 along with his old colleague, Mukul. However, just ahead of the elections, Jimmy switched again – this time to the NPP.  Mukul then decided to contest against Jimmy in Tikrikilla, a constituency which he had not contested in before. Mukul is also contesting in his old constituency, Songsak — he is currently leading there. -- Tora Agarwala

As per early trends, incumbent Chief Minister Conrad Sangma is locked in a close battle with BJP’s Bernard Marak. After round two, Sangma is leading by 44 votes. The CM’s family bastion, South Tura is one of the most keenly-watched, high-voltage battles in this election and emerged as the epicenter of a long-brewing rivalry between former allies — the NPP and BJP.

In 2022, Marak —a militant turned politician — was arrested in the alleged “sex racket”. The development had brought the already-strained relationship between the NPP and BJP to a flashpoint, with the latter alleging that CM Sangma was settling personal scores by targeting him.

Ahead of the elections, many in Tura said that there has been a rise in public “sympathy” for him in his belt, especially after his “unlawful arrest” last year. Read Tora Agarwala's ground report here

The Phek constituency is crucial for the beleaguered Naga People's Front (NPF) where its legislature party leader and second-in-command Kuzholuzo Nienu is contesting. In its severely depleted condition, a victory for Nienu—who is a five-time MLA from the seat—is crucial for building morale within the party as it prepares to reorganize itself in the years to come. 

However, early trends on the seat issued by the ECI show him trailing behind the NDPP’s Kupota Khesoh by a narrow margin of 167 votes. -- Sukrita Baruah

Though BJP is still holding majority according to trends, the Opposition parties, especially TIPRA Motha has picked up pace. Latest trends suggest BJP is leading in 20 seats, TIPRA Motha is leading in 13 seats while the CPIM and Congress parties are leading in 10 and 5 seats respectively. Other candidates are leading in 2 seats. -- Debraj Deb

Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad K Sangma met Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma in Guwahati ahead of the counting of votes for the assembly elections — sparking off talk about a post poll agreement by the two former allies, BJP and NPP. Despite not emerging as the single largest party in 2018, the NPP had manage to stitch up a coalition with smaller regional parties as well as the BJP. However, they decided to contest 2023 polls separately.

Ahead of the election, the two parties have openly criticised each other. However, a post poll alliance — especially with Sarma meeting Sangma — is not ruled out. -- Tora Agarwala

In Nagaland, all eyes are on the four constituencies in which women candidates are contesting, with anticipation that at least one might be elected to become the state’s first woman MLA.

Salhoutuonuo Kruse, one of the NDPP’s two women candidates, is ahead with a marginal lead of 433 votes in the Western Angami constituency, according to latest figures updated by the ECI. -- Sukrita Baruah

One of the most keenly watched and hotly contested seats in the Nagaland elections has been the Dimapur III constituency, where the NDPP’s candidate Hekani Jakhalu has been trying to break the pattern of women not being elected to the assembly in the state.

With early trends on this seat issued by the ECI, she is currently in the lead. She is up against two time MLA and incumbent Azheto Zhimomi who, after being denied a ticket from the NDPP, is contesting from the LJP (RV). Apart from a Congress candidate and an Independent candidate, another prominent candidate from the seat is popular activist Kahuto Chishi who is contesting as an Independent. -- Sukrita Baruah

Lok Sabha MP — Vincent Pala — who is currently the Meghalaya Congress President  and contesting the Sutnga Saipung constituency in the Jaintia Hills, is trailing as per early trends put out by the ECI. The NPP’s SM Shylla is currently leading. Pala — essentially the face of the beleaguered Congress, which has been hit by defections — is a crucial candidate for the grand old party. -- Tora Agarwala

The BJP seems to be retaining the foothold in the Northeastern region which it has gained since Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the party to power at the centre in 2014. The early trends show that the party is ahead of the combined Opposition in Tripura, its alliance leading in Nagaland and gaining more seats in Meghalaya, a state where the Conrad Sangma led National People's Party (NPP) is looking to remain in power.

With the results going in the expected way, party leaders claim that it is a verdict on the development agenda pursued by PM Modi and the BJP. If the final results are on the same lines, the party can reassure its strategy to cut through the accusation of anti-minority and anti-tribal with the development and good governance narrative. The results in the northeastern states will not only reaffirm the party's dominance in the region, but also would be a major morale boost ahead of the crucial elections coming up this year including those in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. -- Liz Mathew