In Meghalaya’s Sangma vs Sangma tussle, a hung House tomorrow could be BJP’s gain

The exit polls have predicted 20 seats for the ruling NPP and up to 11 for the Trinamool Congress, while the BJP may marginally improve its position.

To match the growing ambitions of Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, the ruling party needs to establish that it can win an election on its own. (PTI)

Written by: Tora Agarwala

6 min readGuwahatiMar 1, 2023 08:28 PM IST First published on: Mar 1, 2023 at 06:01 PM IST

Of the three Northeastern states whose results will be declared on Thursday, the most closely contested battle, as per the exit polls, has been in Meghalaya.

A hung Assembly has been predicted in the state, with the ruling National People’s Party (NPP) predicted to end up with 20 seats. The BJP, an NPP ally in power but which fought the elections separately, may increase its tally from two to 6. The Trinamool Congress TMC) could win up to 11 seats.

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Here is how all the major parties are positioned going into results day.

National People’s Party

To match the growing ambitions of Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, the ruling party needs to establish that it can win an election on its own. Last time, the party had got 20.60 per cent of the votes and won 19 seats in the 60-member Assembly, finishing behind the Congress’s 28.65 per cent votes and 21 seats. It was the support of the BJP and other smaller allies that saw Conrad into his first term in power.

The alliance between the NPP and BJP in power was uneasy at best, marked by frequent squabbling, with the two contesting separately in the recent elections. Besides, Conrad, who is looking to expand the NPP beyond Meghalaya and has some stake in Nagaland too, which also voted on February 27, needs a solo win to shed the tag of being a party supported — and dictated, as per its rivals — by the BJP.

A win would also help Conrad, 45, grow out of his father P A Sangma’s shadow. The former Lok Sabha Speaker and once a familiar national figure, the late P A Sangma continues to be a popular figure in the state. Conrad took over the party in 2016, after P A Sangma’s death that year, and this time four of the family are in the race on NPP ticket. Conrad is contesting from the South Tura constituency, his brother James from Dadenggre, uncle Thomas from North Tura, and brother-in-law Sanjay Sangma from Mahendraganj.

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With Mukul Sangma of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) a direct competitor of Conrad, this tussle is again a battle of wills between the two Sangmas over who rules Garo Hills.

Meanwhile, soon after exit poll results predicted a hung Assembly, Conrad indicated that he was very much open to alliances — which could mean a continuation of the status quo.

Trinamool Congress

As far as coups go, few parties have perhaps been as successful as the TMC in Meghalaya. Nowhere in the picture after the 2018 elections, the party with zero seats had overnight emerged as the principal Opposition after 12 MLAs of the Congress changed sides to it, along with the tallest of them all — Mukul Sangma.

The chief minister from 2010 to 2013, and then 2013 to 2018, Mukul, a medical doctor, changed allegiance with three other family members (wife, brother and daughter). Five years later, he is essentially the face of the TMC in Meghalaya, and the reason the party is seen to be in contention come result day. His support also transcends ethnic divides, a rarity in a state where ethnicity plays a major role in politics.

The biggest drawback for Mukul, as per critics, is that the TMC is still seen as an “outsider” party, and worse a “Bengali” party – with all the connotations that tag carries in the Northeast. However, Mukul insisted during the campaign that the TMC has put that behind now, to a large extent due to his personal support base.

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He plays on that, comparing it to Conrad and his truck with the BJP. In his final campaign rally at Mahendraganj, Meghalaya’s leading daily, The Shillong Times, quoted Mukul as telling the crowd, “On March 6, 2018, I was relieved of my duties as the chief minister. BJP leaders from Delhi came to Meghalaya and appointed a CM (Conrad), who was not even elected from any constituency back then. Only after becoming CM, he became an MLA. This shows that we did not choose the MDA government but it was done by leaders from Delhi. It was not the mandate of the people of Meghalaya but an imposition.”

This time, Mukul is contesting from Songsak and Tikrkilla, wife Dikkanchi Shira from Mahendraganj, brother Zenith from Rangsakona and brother’s wife Sadhiarani from Gambegre.

BJP

At two seats and 9.63 per cent of the votes in 2018, the BJP found itself in the ruling Meghalaya Development Alliance ruling coalition because Conrad Sangma’s NPP fell short of a majority.

Contesting elections separately, it is hoping to make more of an impression but remains bogged down principally due to the fear in the Christian-dominated state that it is anti-minority. However, there has been some shift, with many realising the virtue of having the same party in power in the state as at the Centre.

A stint in power in Meghalaya, not to forget the neighbouring Northeast states, has also softened the image of the BJP as a more acceptable party. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who did two rallies in Meghalaya, remains the BJP’s selling point, with few prominent local faces in its ranks.

Congress

Even by the Congress’s standards, it rarely gets as bad as this. The party that was the single-largest last time (both in vote share and seats) is going into polls with 0 sitting MLAs this time, having lost almost all to the TMC, and then more in subsequent defections.

The high command hardly intervened to check the drift, and this election saw only Rahul Gandhi drop in with just one rally to shore up the campaign. The grand old party is seen to still have some pockets of support at the grassroots, but it is anybody’s guess if that translates into anything concrete come Thursday.