Four-time CM Neiphiu Rio is the axis around which Nagaland politics has turned over the past two decades

Rio is also one of the richest politicians in the state. According to the Association for Democratic Reforms, he is the second richest candidate in the forthcoming polls, with total assets amounting to over Rs 46 crore.

Rio has overseen all major twists and turns in Naga politics over the last two decades. It was his revolt against the Congress’s S C Jamir and his manoeuvres after joining the NPF in 2003 that ended Jamir’s decade-long iron grip as chief minister and Congress’s run in the state. The formation of the Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) in 2003 with the NPF, BJP, JD(U) and Samata Party, to dislodge the Congress from power, was the beginning of the formula of a regional party forming the government in partnership with the BJP. This formula has been in place in Nagaland since then.

During the campaigning for the forthcoming elections, Rio has jointly addressed meetings with top BJP leaders visiting the state over the last two weeks, including Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP national president J P Nadda. It was a strategic move for both the incumbent CM and his junior coalition partners.

The BJP had seen internal unrest in the run-up to the elections, with several candidates demanding that the 40-20 seat-sharing arrangement between the NDPP and BJP be revised, to increase the BJP’s share to 30. However, the BJP high command went ahead with the existing arrangement. Some leaders even suggested the party wants to maintain its amicable relationship with the NDPP just to continue having Rio on their side.

Rio’s relationship with the BJP has been a long and fruitful one. Each of his chief ministerial terms, first as part of the NPF and then as part of the NDPP, has been in partnership with the BJP. When he left the NPF to join the NDPP in 2017 — formed by NPF rebels who were his supporters, the BJP too broke off with the NPF — their alliance partner of 15 years, and joined hands with the NDPP.

With the BJP growing in strength and ambition in the state, Rio has been manoeuvring to stay ahead. Last year’s development, when 21 NPF MLAs crossed over to the NDPP, increasing the latter’s strength in the Assembly from 21 to 42 MLAs, is seen as Rio’s way of securing his position.

Moving into this election as senior partner in the alliance once again, Rio has expressed confidence that they will win 40-50 seats. But all eyes are also on the numerous smaller parties in the fray this time, including those that are the BJP’s NDA allies, such as the LJP (Ram Vilas) and the RPI (A), which will be looking to form post-poll alliances for government formation and could shake the power equations.