Win some,Lose some

Winters Bone,about the hardscrabble life of a young girl,or the lush The Kings Speech,about a reluctant monarch trying with all his might to overcome a stutter? The darkly hypnotic The Black Swan,about an obsessed ballerina trying to break free,or True Grit,about an amazingly gutsy 14-year-old on the trail of her fathers killer? A scam artist with the startling power of altering our dreams in Inception,or a boxer who has to fight the hardest thing in the world,mommylove,to get out from under in The Fighter?

A win or a loss is all down to an aggregation of the ayes and noes,and as it happens with things to do with numbers,it almost never tells the full story. The one that wins could be one of the above. It could also,notionally,be one of these four: a social misfit who creates the biggest social network platform in the wide webbed world (The Social Network) ,or a man stuck in a deep ravine staring at certain death (127 Hours),or a pair of kids,brought up by two moms,looking for where they came from in The Kids Are All Right,or a bunch of animated toys searching for love (Toy Story 3). When it comes to the Oscars,the biggest advert-driven live TV entertainment event,despite the much-mourned dip in viewership,the palpable need for a global pat on the back is thick in the air,lining the red carpet along with the sweeping fishtails and ankle-killing spikes. Nominating a film that celebrates lesbian love (The Kids Are All Right) is brilliant. It gives the Oscars liberal street-cred. It lets Hollywood tell the world that hey,look,we do diversity; we are not just an off-shoot of the big studios that get off on multiple sequel-fuelled bottom-lines.

But dont let anyone tell you different. The fiercely indie Winters Bone,or The Kids Are All Right will have a splashy night out. Their cast and crew will get to swan down the same strip as the big boys (and girls). They will share the front seats,too. Maybe they will be spotlit with jokes on sturdy same sex relationships,or how hard American lives can be in the rural outback. But thats about all. These are not films,Im betting,which will win the top titles. Because then who will watch the telecast? Big star Annette Bening may win Best Actress for being one half of the fractious lesbian couple struggling with child-rearing and infidelity issues. (She wont; Natalie Portmans tormented dancer in The Black Swan is a shoo-in for Best Actress). But is the Academy of Motion Pictures really ready to give out the big one to a pair of women who happily get physical,and a scruffy sperm donor who doesnt think theres anything wrong about hanging the college trip,and who advocates hanging loose instead? There may be snowflakes in hell,in which case.

Punters are going big on The Kings Speech,which has spurted past The Social Network,which peaked early in the awards rounds. The formers the kind of worthy film that the Academy voters love. Its got disability,its got the royals being shown their place by feisty commoners,and,most importantly,its got that we-shall-overcome spirit that needs to be acknowledged: how can the teenage girl in Winter’s Bone being thumped by grouchy grown-ups,high on moonshine,compare with this lush presentation of pomp and grandeur? Thats right,silly question. Will The Kids Are All Right pip hot favourite

The Kings Speech to the post? Im hoping it will. But Im betting,sadly,that it wont.n

shubhra.gupta expressindia.com