Tipping points

On Sunday we should in all probability know who will have the mandate to rule Jammu and Kashmir for the next six years. But even before the ballots are counted, the state8217;s voters have registered a message to their yet-to-be-declared elected representatives. They turned out in record numbers to vote in a new state assembly, in all seven phases of a long drawn out election schedule. Taken in its entirety, the election has seen an average turnout of 61.5 per cent, high by any standard. Importantly, there has also been a sharp spike in voting in boycott-prone areas like Srinagar, up to 20 per cent in the 7th phase on Wednesday from 5 per cent in 2002.

Coming after a summer of agitations over the Amarnath issue, with the Valley and Jammu appearing to have become sharply polarised, the voter turnout carries especial significance. By next week the political orientation of the party/coalition that will hold J038;K will be known. But there is a message in the vote that goes beyond the identity of whoever the eventual victors may be. Sixty-plus per cent turnouts are a sign of change in parts of Kashmir where, in earlier elections, it was seen to be a sign of the state8217;s success that ballots had been cast at all, and that this was done in relatively peaceful conditions. Veteran hardliners like Syed Ali Shah Geelani, repairing after the rebuff to a boycott call by separatists, know this. Petulantly, he rationalises the rebuff by pointing to a decrease in violence and the adoption of a 8220;soft separatist8221; line by some political parties. The danger is if mainstream politics 8212; which has garnered more space in J038;K8217;s public life in this campaign with a wider array of candidates in the fray 8212; too accepts these reasons alone for the thumping turnouts.

Anecdotally, the larger message has been conveyed by many voters, who say they came out to vote to register their entitlement to bijli, sadak, pani accountability from their local representatives. They are, in this manner, reaching for the constitutional mechanisms that voters in other parts of India have become so markedly nuanced in using to gain as best as they can the quality of governance they need. In the other states that went to the polls this winter, voters showed they would not be distracted by non-development issues. In J038;K, the vote may demand an even more nuanced response. The people have indicated a certain faith in the political process; the state8217;s politics and New Delhi need to show that they read it.