You do the math

It isn8217;t over till it8217;s over. Wary Democrats, hopeful Republicans and a media that has lived through two elections of white-knuckled tension have made much of a few polls that suggest John McCain might be catching up. Mason-Dixon indicates that he is just 4 points down in Pennsylvania and Fox News places McCain a mere 3 points down nationwide. A couple of other polls have also whittled away at Barack Obama8217;s lead. While undecided voters and first-time voters can certainly be game-changers, are these wild-card polls really a sign of shocks to come?

Even without any deliberate partisan flaw or poor sampling, these polls can show a persistent 8220;lean8221; one way or the other. In any case, polls always tighten: even if undecided voters break fifty-fifty in the last few days, it will look as if the race is tightening when it isn8217;t, at all. Some respondents don8217;t want to tell a pollster that they8217;re backing a losing candidate. Building a logical edifice on these numbers, which are themselves smeared with fingerprints, is difficult. So is the McCain campaign8217;s insistence that he is within striking distance of victory mere happytalk? While public polls tend to go for the overall head-to-head numbers, internal statistics can suss out more subtle shifts in voter demographics and preference 8212; and have a better nose for imminent shifts before the big pollsters catch on.

But even so, for any meaningful tightening in electoral college terms, some are suggesting a simple 2/2/2 rule: McCain must poll within 2 points in 2 or more polls in at least 2 out of the 3 pivotal swing states of Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania. That8217;s not happening yet. Then again, there8217;s the audacity of hope.