Looking ahead in 2020: Pitched battle ahead for states, ideas, institutions

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In drawing out at many places people of all castes and communities against the government, with gestures such as waving the Tricolour and reading from the Constitution, the protests are likely to have assured the minority Muslims that they are not completely isolated in society. While the BJP continues to publicly downplay the protests and dismiss them as orchestrated by political opponents, a section of party leaders believes that pressing ahead with the NRC in the face of the opposition would trigger widespread anger among citizens.

After the euphoria of the Lok Sabha elections, 2019 has ended on a sombre note for the BJP with the defeat in Jharkhand. The Delhi elections will present an opportunity early in 2020 for the BJP to test the polarisation quotient of the new citizenship law. Following the enactment of the law, BJP leaders in Delhi have been optimistic about their prospects.

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After Delhi in February, comes Bihar in October. The triumphs at the Centre in 2014 and 2019 notwithstanding, the BJP’s defeats in 2015 in Bihar; in 2017 in Punjab; in 2018 in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh; and in 2019 in Jharkhand underline the party’s vulnerabilities in the states when the vote is not directly to make Narendra Modi Prime Minister. In Gujarat (2017), and Haryana and Maharashtra (2019), the BJP performed below expectations. Building state leaderships that can complement Modi’s popularity will be one of the party’s top tasks in 2020.

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At this juncture, a change in the party’s internal dynamics could be significant. Amit Shah is likely to be replaced as the BJP’s national president by J P Nadda — for whom the major challenge will be to retain the BJP’s reputation and abilities as an election-winning machine. The hold of Modi-Shah over the party is absolute now — political observers would be watching whether Nadda might emerge as another power centre.

And what of the Congress, the shrunken party that the BJP continues to attack relentlessly, but which has improved its credibility as the leading Opposition party by producing an impressive performance in Haryana, succeeding in keeping the BJP away from power in Maharashtra, and winning Jharkhand along with senior partner JMM?

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The Congress task in Delhi is uphill, where it will be battling for largely the same votebank as the Aam Aadmi Party, which has a formidable record in government to show. In Bihar, the Congress is not a force at all, and will hope to ride with the RJD. Nitish Kumar’s opposition to the NRC — along with his record of political flexibility — has raised fresh talk of a possible realignment of political forces.

The confusion at the party’s highest level, however, continues. Sonia Gandhi’s taking charge at a critical time is only an interim arrangement, and the leadership issue is far from settled. Rahul Gandhi’s stated reluctance notwithstanding, the chances of the Congress having a president from outside the family are bleak.

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Then, there are questions about the future of India’s democratic institutions. The neutrality of several public institutions and offices have been put under a cloud, and the new year will see them subjected to continued scrutiny from the people and civil society.

The Supreme Court will hear the challenges to the removal of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and the new citizenship law, among several crucial cases. The highest court will be called upon to both demonstrate and interpret its role as the guardian of the Constitution, and the guarantor of the founding principles of the republic. On test also will be the court’s resolve to safeguard the independence of the higher judiciary. —(With Manoj C G and Ananthakrishnan G)