Mahayuti to MVA, why BJP has edge in corporation polls, but faces hurdles 

The outcome of these polls reflected the BJP’s political dominance – even in rural and semi-urban areas – over not only the Opposition parties but also its own allies.

For a party like the BJP, whose original electoral base was urban, the upcoming municipal corporation polls may amount to batting on a familiar pitch. While no two elections are similar, its planning and preparedness are likely to give the BJP a headstart in the January 15 polls too. Yet, the party may face various challenges ahead – not only from the Opposition camp but also from within the ruling coalition.

What may be hurdles for BJP?

While the BJP maintained its big brother position in the first phase of the local body polls, the Shinde Sena and the NCP also fared well. The Mahayuti partners, like the MVA allies, also took on each other in “friendly fights” in several places, with each party executing its own game plan in the interest of its local units. In the municipal corporation polls, these battle lines are going to be sharper.

Addressing the BJP workers in Nagpur Monday, senior party leader and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said, “In the coming municipal corporation elections, the Mahayuti will emerge victorious. And the Opposition will be further decimated.”

The BJP has aspirations to secure an absolute majority in the 2029 state Assembly elections, but it cannot afford to wish away its formidable allies, who also showed in the November 2024 Assembly polls that both Shinde and Ajit Pawar are significant political forces to reckon with in the state. While pushing for its expansion, the BJP would have to do a tightrope walk to ensure that the strain in its ties with the two allies is not pushed to a breaking point.

Corporation elections

Both the BJP and the Shiv Sena have already decided to contest the BMC elections together. Besides, both Mahayuti allies are also trying to form a pre-poll alliance for the civic body polls in Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli and some other cities.

While the BJP is likely to contest several corporation polls in alignment with the Shinde Sena, its approach towards the NCP would be different. It plans to engage in direct fights with the NCP in some corporation polls, such as in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, in a bid not to give any space to the Opposition.

What happened in 2017 polls?

In the 2017 BMC polls, the BJP and the then undivided Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, despite being together in the state’s coalition government, fought against each other. It threw up a fractured mandate, with the Sena emerging as the single largest party with 84 seats as compared to the BJP’s 82 in the 227-member House. After the polls, they joined hands to rule the BMC.

What has stopped the BJP from following its 2017  model in this BMC election vis-a-vis Shinde Sena is the expected reunion of the estranged Thackeray cousins, Uddhav Thackeray and MNS chief Raj Thackeray. In Mumbai, the Marathi factor could be decisive, which remains the plank of both the Sena (UBT) and the MNS. Their tie-up could also prove crucial in the corporation polls in Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli, Nashik and Pune.

In 2017, the BJP’s vote share in the polls to 27 municipal corporations stood at 31.3%, with the party winning 1,099 of 2736 seats across these bodies. The upcoming elections for 29 municipal corporations include two new bodies, Icchalkaranji and Jalna.

Tussles within MVA, Mahayuti

The Shiv Sena’s vote share in the 2017 corporation polls was 18.49% (489 seats). After the split in the Sena following Shinde’s revolt, Uddhav has struggled to rebuild his party that could take on the BJP and the Shinde Sena.What remains to be seen is whether he could regain his party’s lost grounds after joining hands with Raj Thackeray.

The Congress had garnered 15.53% votes in the 2017 corporation elections. It has now finished ahead of the MVA partners in the recent local body polls, which may lead to the party working out its own roadmap for the January 15 elections.

Seizing on the poor performance of the Sena (UBT) and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) in the local body polls, some Congress leaders have also started questioning the relevance of the party’s alliance with them.

A senior Congress leader said, “Following the INDIA bloc’s losses in various polls earlier, some of our MVA partners often held Rahul Gandhi responsible for failing the Opposition. Now, it is our turn to question the leadership of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray.”

In the 2017 corporation polls, the then Sharad Pawar-led undivided NCP had won 294 seats with a 11.06% vote share. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP would now fight hard to prove itself in key municipal corporations across west and north Maharashtra.

With the MVA tottering, the Mahayuti is looking to consolidate itself, even as the BJP’s expansion bid may trigger a game of one-upmanship in several civic bodies.

Following the local body poll results Sunday, Shinde said his party’s strike rate in these elections was “best”.

A day later, CM Fadnavis said: “The results show the BJP’s strike rate was highest. I went through records of 30 years. No party has made such a record.”