Opinion Signs and wonders

Going to polls just before the Lok Sabha elections,these five states have been seen as holding portents for the national elections,especially since 2003. Strictly speaking,the correlation between these results and Central fortunes is hazy. In 1998,the Congress retained Madhya Pradesh and won Delhi,but the national elections the following year led to the the BJP forming the government for the first time. In 2003,the BJP was leading 3-1,only to lose to the Congress in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. These states account for just 73 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats,that is,less than one-seventh of the House. Still,they include perhaps the only large states in which the Congress is pitched directly against the BJP. The results of the elections will give both parties food for thought.

One of the major questions is,will anti-incumbency manifest itself only in Congress-ruled states and not in those held by the BJP for over a decade? A victory in four of the five states would help the BJP batter the Congress’s morale. Even if they are narrow victories,drawn from pitched battles,local arithmetics and caste equations,they will help build a theme of “change” for the next year. The BJP is bound to come out looking good.

But the devil is in the detail. The strengthening of BJP chief ministers,especially Shivraj Singh Chouhan — who will be sworn in for the third time running if the BJP wins,that too in a state bigger than Gujarat — could lead to the emergence of new power centres within the party. The Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine,keen to shore up its control over the party in the run-up to 2014,would want to attribute the victories to the “Modi factor”. The enduring presence of Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh might belie that story.

If the results are not a clear endorsement of the state BJPs,but the state governments still change hands,anti-incumbency could be read as the verdict of an impatient voter with much higher expectations. UPA 2 may rejoice at winning at least some of the states,but a general anti-incumbency drift would suggest that voters have set the bar very high for incumbents. So it is a complex message for UPA 2. The welfare and entitlement schemes that had worked well for earlier governments seem to have stopped yielding straight electoral dividends. In the last couple of years,governments that were formerly rated as “good” and “governance oriented” — the DMK in Tamil Nadu and Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh,for instance — have taken a hit in assembly polls. So if the Congress loses Rajasthan and Delhi despite its celebrated welfare programmes and innovative governance,it could provide clues to how a rapidly changing India votes. The influence of higher incomes but more uncertainty,greater information and rising expectations is now finding anxious political expression. Right to information and economic entitlements are welcome,but what next and exactly when,the voter seems to be asking.

On the subject of paradigm shifts,take the case of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. If it wins anything more than one or two seats in the capital,it would certainly have initiated a deep political change. From sustained and highly publicised politician-bashing,the AAP has transformed itself into a persuasive insider. Its performance would have an impact on urban politics as a whole and shake parties that take the urban vote for granted. Both the BJP and the Congress would be forced to rework their pitch in the cities. The AAP was first associated with all things middle class — the enthusiasm of the NRI,the young white-collar worker. But soon enough,it tapped into a restive poor and migrant population. The frustration among the city’s poor,living next to great infrastructure and opportunities but unable to benefit from them,found an outlet in the AAP. If this can be replicated in more than a handful of the cities,it could be the start of an entirely new politics in a rapidly urbanising India.

If Sheila Dikshit is unable to retain Delhi and the BJP emerges as the largest party but the AAP comes in the way of a majority,the BJP would have reason to worry. It would mean that,even when it’s up against a 15-year-old government,the BJP is not the default voter choice when there is a non-Congress alternative. This in spite of the noise,in this most urban of cities,about Modi,and the fact that the BJP has a powerful party apparatus in the capital. Given that Delhi,more than any other state being counted this Sunday,bears a strong resemblance to India,it should worry the BJP,which is known to look on the urban vote as its natural constituency.

As the four big states are known for their near-bipolarity,it would be interesting to track whether the presence of other parties there has grown or thinned,especially the presence of Mayawati’s BSP. The BJP and the Congress would need to give some thought to a burgeoning set of “others”. Would these parties help the Congress or the BJP? Should they be encouraged,the BJP may want to ask,to ensure that the Congress votebank is splintered? The Congress might wonder if they should be turned into allies.

The discussion on the general election has been whittled down,at times,almost to a men’s singles final between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. That,in recent times,has been modified by complexities on the ground. But since the two leaders have a disproportionately large say in their respective parties,these state elections are bound to give rise to a conversation about the impact of personalities on polls. So Modi will be blamed for BJP losses. And Rahul Gandhi — we were told that the Congress’s electoral strategies and tactics bore his imprimatur — will face the scrutiny of the Congress’s sidelined,yet powerful,old guard if the party fares badly.

Mizoram,the fifth state that went to polls,may never have felt as important to the Congress. Despite a colourful election on issues like the land-use policy and the role of the church in the state,the campaign found few takers outside the region. Narendra Modi pointedly chose not to go there. So,if the Congress loses there this time,could it be put down to the Modi effect or would it be just the Congress effect? That is a question the incumbents in Delhi will have to grapple with before they pad up for 2014.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com