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How the world will have to deal differently with Russia now

The past is never dead; it8217;s not even past,8221; said William Faulkner. The events in the Caucasus are so reminiscent of the hey-day of the Cold War that one can be excused for thinking that the Cold War never actually ended. Russia invades its neighbour because it dislikes the regime. The United States responds by airlifting military aid. The two powers stand eyeball to eyeball in a region of great instability. And the Europeans look on, afraid that a major conflict might soon erupt on their doorsteps and call for a negotiated settlement. Did you say deacute;jagrave; vu all over again?nbsp;

The present Russia-Georgia conflict might just mark the turning point in Russia8217;s re-emergence and in its relationship with the West. This conflict was bound to erupt one day, given the historical, political and strategic differences between Russia and Georgia. But it happened sooner than many would have predicted due to a constellation of factors. Georgia has increasingly gravitated towards the West, and to the US in particular. It has been clamouring to become a member of NATO along with Ukraine.nbsp;Russia has repeatedly made it clear that it would not like NATO to be anywhere near its periphery, its near abroad which it considers its own sphere of influence. Moreover, Russia remains angry at the West for recognising Kosovo8217;s independence from Serbia. Russia had warned that it might set a precedent for South Ossetia and other breakaway provinces.nbsp;

When Georgia started military action against South Ossetia, Russia decided that the time had come to assert its prowess. Georgia seemed to have miscalculated Russian response as well as the broader strategic picture. The Russians have succeeded in unilaterally establishing their military dominance in the region with a clear interest in a regime change in Georgia. The US remains preoccupied with several other conflicts and it has neither the ability nor the willingness to confront Russia militarily on this issue. It needs Russian cooperation on a whole host of global issues from West Asia to nuclear arms control.nbsp;

The Russian-Georgia conflict is taking place in a broader strategic milieu in which Russia is re-emerging as a major global actor. Russia under Putin wants to establish itself as a major player in global politics, a balancer to the US might. It is flush with soaring oil revenues and confident of its power due to its hold over European energy supplies. Russian defence spending has soared to 40 billion annually, rising eightfold under Putin. There is a huge support for this among the Russian public which remains nostalgic for their great-power status. And so while Russia acquiesced to the American unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, it is no longer willing to let US actions go unchallenged. Putin8217;s nostalgia for the Cold War days is clearly evident. As he has said of the Cold War era, 8220;There was an equilibrium and a fear of mutual destruction8230; and one party was afraid to make an extra step without consulting the other8230; Peace was reliable.8221; It is to that 8220;reliable peace8221; that Putin wants to take global politics. nbsp;

However, it is clear that Russia has won the present round hands down. It now controls the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and has changed the military realities on the ground. Russia has made it clear that it intends to be ruthless in preserving what it considers its vital interests. It has also made the domestic political position of Saakashvili rather tenuous. Dictating the terms of the peace settlement after inflicting a humiliating defeat on Georgia, Russia has now effectively severed the country into two and refuses to leave Georgian borders under the pretext that it is allowed to send troops where it believes its interests are threatened.nbsp;

Russia8217;s reaction to the latest conflict can either propel its neighbouring states to be more cautious in dealing with the West and delay their entry into the NATO or it can further spur them into action for an even closer alliance with the West. Poland and the US quickly concluded their deal on missile defence even as Russia threatened Poland of an attack, even a nuclear one in retaliation. Ukraine is planning a naval exercise with the Americans. Europeans are warning that Georgia and Ukraine will be in NATO earlier than expected. The West is gradually realising that contemporary Russia poses a grave geopolitical challenge that can no longer be managed merely by conciliatory gestures.

The developments in Europe will have a far greater impact on Indian foreign policy than many realise. India has been able to pursue its 8220;multi-vector8221; foreign policy partly because the relations between all the major powers in the world have been stable for the last few years. As tensions rise between the West and Russia, India will have to make some complicated diplomatic choices. It would be better prepared to make those choices if it is aware of the implications of the far-reaching changes taking place in Europe.nbsp;

The writer teaches at King8217;s College, London

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