Heir not so apparent?

When Michaëlle Jean,the governor-general of Canada,was described as head of state on her website earlier this month,the government...

When Michaëlle Jean,the governor-general of Canada,was described as head of state on her website earlier this month,the government issued a quick and very public correction. All Canadians know that Queen Elizabeth II is the head of state, huffed Dimitri Soudas,the prime ministers spokesman. However,in a poll last December only 24 per cent of Canadians did know this. Almost double that number thought that the prime minister was head of state; and one-third thought it was the governor-general,who is in fact the queens representative in the country.

Whereas monarchists condemn such ignorance,republicans believe it is a natural consequence of keeping what they see as an archaic and increasingly meaningless link to Canadas colonial past. Both sides think the ten-day visit of Prince Charles and Camilla,the Duchess of Cornwall,beginning on November 2nd,will help their cause.

But only a little bit. Unlike in Australia,where a referendum on a republic failed in 1999,there has never been a national debate on the monarchy in Canada since the country was founded in 1867. Neither the monarchists nor the republicans,both fringe groups,have much hope that the royal visit will push this issue up the list of Canadian priorities,dominated by the weak economy and the H1N1 flu virus.

Its an opportunity for Canadians to get reacquainted with their future king, says Robert Finch,head of the Monarchist League of Canada. Although the prince has made 14 visits,most recently in 2001,Mr Finch says there is still a strangeness factor to be overcome. He is sure Canadians will like what they see and identify with such princely causes as the environment,youth and bridging the gaps between religions.

Republicans are equally confident that when Canadians focus on the prince as their next head of state,they will wake up to the need to sever the connection. Polls have suggested a drift towards republicanism in recent years: a survey of 1,000 people in June by the Strategic Counsel,a pollster,found that 65 per cent thought Canada should cut its ties to the monarchy after the end of Elizabeths reign,whereas only 35 per cent wanted her successor to rule their country.

Our supporters like to see the royals stay home,but we like them to show up because its the only time Canadians really think about the monarchy, says Tom Freda,who leads Citizens for a Canadian Republic. His group shares tactics and lessons with counterparts in Australia,where a recent poll indicated that 51 per cent favoured getting rid of the monarchy,and those in New Zealand,where the equivalent figure is 42 per cent,and Britain,where it is only 18 per cent although differences in method mean the various polls are not strictly comparable.

It is not certain then that,when the time comes,the Maple Crown of Canada will pass to Prince Charles from his mother. But for the moment,Canadian apathy and the perceived difficulty of changing the constitution to appoint or elect a new head of state favour the monarchists cause.

The Economist Newspaper Limited 2009