Stormy days are here again

Whenever cyclones strike, it is the killer one of November 19, 1977, that is recalled. That night every one slept, including top officials of Krishna district, without realising that thousands were dying in the inky darkness. They woke up to find bodies hanging from the branches of trees.

At that time the authorities had no means of knowing the intensity of a cyclonic storm. The only data they had on handwas the the day8217;s temperature and humidity. 8220;The 1977 cyclone was a watershed in disaster management. We have come a long way since then,8221; says Visakhapatnam District Collector S Narasing Rao. He was a student in Medak at that time but remembers the reports of devastation and the colossal loss of human life very vividly.

Today things are different. There is a fully equipped cyclone warning centre and the Meteorological Department can give the authorities warnings of impending cyclones at least 72 hours in advance. 8220;After the 1977 tragedy, a disaster management mechanism was put into place which comes to play at the slightest evidence of an impending cyclone,8221; says Rao.

But every now and then, the system is severely tested. There was the nightmarish cyclone which had formed on November 15, 1997, and crossed Krishna district on November 19. It left the entire coast from Srikakulam to Guntur in a shambles and took thousands of lives.

8220;The cyclones that form in October-November grow in strength becausethe surface temperature of the sea is over 29 degrees. As long as the system lies on the sea, it remains powerful and keeps acquiring devastating proportions,8221; says J.V.M. Naidu, Director, Cyclone Warning Centre.

It begins as a trough of low pressure and then gradually changes into a severe storm. As the Bay of Bengal is a tropical sea with ample sunlight, the volume of water vapour 8212; which is essential for formation of a cyclone 8212; is very high. The latent heat of vapour is transferred to the wind systems as kinetic energy.

So how does the safety system work? First the Meteorological Department warns the district administration in advance, who in turn calls the vulnerable mandals and informs the people there about the possibility of a cyclone. The collectors concerned know which the vulnerable areas are and have to activate the safety systems in these areas.

In the case of last week8217;s cyclone too, the Visakhapatnam district collector got the cyclone warning on November 14 itself. By evening, he hadalerted all the leaders of the 11 mandals of the district. As there are 59 fishing villages in the district, he had to ensure that none of them ventured into the sea. What concerned him particularly were the 15 to 16 low-lying regions in the district.

One of the first tasks of the administration is to ensure the evacuation of people threatened by the cyclone. The officials in these areas are asked to keep vehicles ready and be in a position to move the local population at short notice.

But the one big problem that all district collectors invariably face is people8217;s resistance to being shifted to safer places. There is a general tendency to disregard the advice of the authorities. 8220;It8217;s no easy task to persuade them,8221; says Rao. 8220;Sometimes we have to requisition police help to force them to move to safer places.8221;

This is understandable, of course. As Rao puts it, 8220;No one wants to leave their homes and belongings behind. I understand their problem. But they should know that their lives are moreimportant their belongings.8221; The coastal belt, even though it is ravaged by cyclones, is an extremely fertile area. It is in fact the most prosperous part of the state. People are so used to these occurrences that they tend to be casual in their attitude to them. They therefore resist the idea of moving till the very last 8212; and sometimes that can be too late.

The other problem the authorities face is that after the threat of the cyclone has passed, there is usually a storm of complaints 8212; complaints of neglect, complaints that relief has not reached them. 8220;We do our best to ensure that relief reaches people,8221; the district collector says, 8220;but sometimes there may be a delay and people get worked up.8221; The Government has authorised the local administration to spend up to Rs 12 per head for providing food, medicines and drinking water. But this is clearly insufficient.

It8217;s a case of human ingenuity and organisation being pitted against nature8217;s fury. You cannot prevent cyclonic storms, you can onlyprepare for them. As Rao puts it, 8220;To be forewarned is to be forearmed.8221;

November nemesis

As many as 26 major cyclones have hit the Andhra Pradesh coast since 1977, as many as 23 between October and December. A look at the more devastating ones in November: