Poised to take the BJP reins, why Nitin Nabin has his task cut out

Amid a shifting political landscape, Nabin, 45, would have to display “deft leadership and consensus-building” while also preparing the next generation of the BJP leaders to tackle various daunting tasks, said several BJP leaders.

The BJP is likely to issue a notification for the election of the new party chief on January 18. Nabin is likely to file his nomination on the next day. And with no other candidate expected to throw his hat into the ring, Nabin is set to be elected unopposed. On January 20, he is likely to take over as the BJP’s 12th president – its youngest so far — succeeding J P Nadda.

On Tuesday, senior BJP leaders met in Delhi to finalise the process of electing the new party chief, which was attended by K Laxman, the convener of the committee constituted for the presidential election, and co-conveners Sambit Patra and Naresh Bansal. They discussed various aspects of the election and its modalities to ensure a smooth process in line with the party’s constitution, said party sources.

Nabin’s immediate task would be to lead the party into the upcoming elections in key states such as West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

“But his (Nabin’s) real challenge will begin afterwards – to prepare the party for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, which will be held in the backdrop of the country going through the delimitation process and the rolling out of 33% quota for women in the Lok Sabha and Assemblies. The new president will have to prepare the party for a changed scenario,” said a senior BJP leader.

According to the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, which was passed by Parliament in September 2023 during the Modi government’s second term, the reservation of one-third of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies shall come into effect after delimitation is undertaken based on the first Census that is conducted after the enactment of the Act.

The Modi government is targeting the implementation of women quota in the 2029 general elections. With the government having already notified the commencement of the Census, which will give a snapshot of the country’s population as on March 1, 2027, the stage would then be set for the delimitation exercise. The 2002 constitutional amendment had frozen the delimitation of constituencies till the first Census after 2026.

There have been concerns among southern states regarding delimitation changing the proportion of seats allocated to various states in the Lok Sabha since it would lead to a jump in seats for the northern states, where populations have grown rapidly since 1971 Census (the benchmark for the existing delimitation) and reduce the relative weight of southern states where the population rate has slowed down in the same period.

“If ONOE happens, it would entirely change the country’s political and electoral scenario,” the senior BJP leader quoted above said. “A significant part of the electoral process is already in auto pilot mode for the BJP. You do the candidate selection and prepare the strategies on the basis of the previous election – and when you have both the Lok Sabha and state polls at different times, you get the time to review and recalibrate your strategies and pick the candidates accordingly. But, if all these elections are held simultaneously, you would not have that leverage.”

The Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty-Ninth Amendment) Bill, 2024, providing for alignment of the election cycles of the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies was introduced in the Lower House in December 2024. It has since been under the consideration of a Joint Committee of Parliament headed by the BJP’s P P Chaudhary.

Chaudhary has said that the earliest that simultaneous elections could be held in the country is 2034. “But the BJP has to begin preparing for any new scenario,” said a party insider. “It will be a big challenge for the party. It will be a testing time for the new pool of leadership that is coming up. Creating a crop of young leaders for the purpose would be part of Nabin’s key mandate,” he added.

According to BJP leaders, Nabin would also be tested by “the party’s unconquered terrains”. A BJP leader said: “Upcoming elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry may not be his (Nabin’s) responsibility. But his real assignment would be the party’s expansion in the south. No BJP president has been able to make a significant impact in the south. The party will have to expand its footprint if it wants to become a force in the south.” The BJP has so far been able to emerge as a major player only in Karnataka, but other southern states have still remained out of reach for the party, he said.

“Caste census will throw up new equations. The party has to be mindful of its results. This will also be part of the BJP’s challenges for 2029,” he added.

Some BJP insiders also flagged the shifting geopolitical scenario, with a party leader pointing out that the party has even resumed its engagement with the Communist Party of China (CPC), its first since 2009. A Chinese delegation visited the BJP’s headquarters in Delhi Monday to meet the party leaders.

“Global realities are changing fast. US President Donald Trump has now announced a 25% new tariff against the countries which do business with Iran. We are Iran’s trade partners and this is just the latest in a series of fresh challenges for the country and the government. Being the ruling party, the BJP cannot ignore it. And as the new party president, Nabin would have to be mindful of those realities too,” said the BJP leader.