Greyhound attack just the start, Orissa braces for worse

The attack came at a time when the Government was celebrating the success of Greyhounds in eliminating key Maoist leaders and almost wiping out Naxal menace from Andhra’s Nallamala forests in the past four years, aided by a network of informants. Buoyed by the success, the Union Home Ministry had even drawn up a plan to start a Counter-Insurgency Battalion for Resolute Action (COBRA), modelled on the Greyhounds, to counter the rebels in strongholds like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa.

The CPI(Maoist) has claimed responsibility for the killings, and officials expect it was to avenge the elimination of its cadre by the Greyhounds. Though it is not yet clear who led the attack, intelligence officials say it could be Sunil, secretary of the CPI(Maoist) Orissa state committee, the No 1 among Maoists in the state.

Andhra Home Minister K Jana Reddy has already sworn that the state would take revenge 10 times over on the Maoists and that their activities would be wiped out in the Andhra Pradesh-Orissa border and Khammam-Chhattisgarh border. Inspector General of Police (Operations), CRPF, A K Maheswari asserts that the incident does not undermine the capability of the security forces.

However, many feel that the march of the Red rebels is now rumbling louder and louder. According to a recent assessment by Indian intelligence officials, Maoist groups are active in 22 out of 28 states and are aiming to liberate and control 35 per cent of India’s land by the end of 2009.

Ajai Sahni, Director of New Delhi’s Institute of Conflict Management, puts it more ominously: “The Red corridor that the Maoists spoke about was being laughed off by the Government 10 years ago. But the reality is that the rebels will soon cover the whole country, with a presence in one or more districts in each state,” he said.

“They have the precision and retain their lethal edge,” admits Manmohan Praharaj, IGP (Operations) of Orissa Police.

The attack also signals the consolidation of the “red corridor” through Orissa, which saw relatively low violence compared to neighbouring Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. “The Orissa Government took comfort in the less number of casualties. But it would no longer remain the same,” admits Bibhu Routray of the Institute of Conflict Management (ICM).

Official figures reveal that while the number of securitymen and civilians killed in Chhattisgarh remained quite high (244 in 2006 and 277 in 2007), the fatalities in Orissa have been the highest so far this year. In fact, the attack in Malkangiri was not a sudden development, as in 2008, the district had witnessed several disparate killings.

The Naxal Management Division of the MHA also talks of a 25 per cent rise in Maoist activities in Malkangiri and a nearly 15 per cent rise in Orissa at large.

“There would be more violence in Orissa this year as in all Maoist-affected areas, political consolidation preludes military mobilisation. The first part is complete in Orissa. Now is the time for second part,” says Sahni.

What has not gone unnoticed is the way Maoists are dominating the terrain, using sophisticated weapons and specific templates. In private, Orissa police officials are in awe of the military planning of the rebels and admit they are afraid of venturing into Maoist strongholds for combing operations.

“For an attack like the one on Nayagarh armoury, they used people’s militia in which a huge number of armed rebels swooped down. But for the skilled Greyhound police in Malkangiri, they chose automatic weapons, light machine guns and SLRs, involving a handful of rebels,” Routray told The Indian Express.

A senior Orissa cop said the Maoist strategy for Orissa is almost akin to the one they planned for Bastar, now a Maoist stronghold. “First they dominate the jungles and then the contiguous cities fall. In the Nayagarh attack, they showed their ability to strike close to a city like Bhubaneswar. It’s the Dominoe effect,” he said.

Orissa police officers in charge of anti-Naxal operations say they are worried about the Maoists graduating from simple landmine blasts to more sophisticated automatic weapons like AK-47. “We know for sure the Maoists have very sophisticated weapons. We knew it at least three months ago. The firepower is almost equal. They have got what we have,” said a senior official on condition of anonymity.

Or better. There are 126 policemen per 100,000 people on an average across the country whereas Orissa has only 99. The Orissa Police currently has over 12,000 vacancies, about 10,000 among the constables and other ranks. More than 50 posts of IPS officers in the state quota are vacant. The state has not been able to spend even Central funds for police modernisation.

Experts say getting more specialised forces like Greyhound to scour the forests is useless unless the state police become competent. “You can’t have a first-class counter-insurgency operation with a third-class police force. In Orissa, the police have been totally incompetent. In Andhra Pradesh, the Greyhounds were complemented by a fantastic state police and infrastructure. In Andhra, all the police stations were fortified when they fought the rebels and the police had sophisticated weapons. They also had better intelligence. But in Orissa, the boatman in Malkangiri was informed about the operation three days in advance!” points out Sahni.

According to Routray, it’s near total domination of the Maoists. “They decide the battlefield and the weaponry… The police are just left to react to an attack while the initiative lies with the rebels. That’s what makes everything scary.”