Division games

It was obvious that he had thrown a spanner in the works. As expected, the Congress, a partner in the ruling front in Maharashtra, was up in arms.

Till recently, Pawar would say that he would not touch the saffron alliance with a barge pole. Suddenly he reversed his stand and, as always, he did not even discuss the issue with his own state leadership. Everyone knows that Bajaj is Pawar8217;s personal candidate. Their friendship is legendary, notwithstanding their so-called ideological differences. For Pawar, exigency comes before ideology.

He has, in fact, been feeling uncomfortable with the alliance ever since he had to eat humble pie and accept a chief minister of Sonia Gandhi8217;s choice. At the time the NCP had actually two more seats in the assembly than the Congress and Pawar claimed that by 8220;natural justice8221; the chief minister should have been from his party. In the event, he bargained hard and managed to get all the 8220;lucrative and prestigious8221; ministries to his party. As a result, the chief minister became a lame duck.

For the past 18 months, there is neither unified, coherent governance nor any political direction in Maharashtra. With the help of those 8220;lucrative8221; departments and aggressive rural leadership, the NCP has consolidated its hold in large parts of Maharashtra. The Congress on the other hand had to mobilise its forces, not by building grassroots organisation, but by recruiting leaders and activists from the splintering Shiv Sena. Indeed, one can say without any exaggeration that if Narayan Rane had not joined the Congress, the party would have been in terminal decline in the state. Rane reversed that and simultaneously his exit paralysed the Sena. He hails from Konkan, the political base of the Sena. He brought to the Congress not only a vast network of activists, including streetfighters, but also resourcefulness which the NCP had virtually usurped.

Pawar had thought that Rane would join the NCP, strengthening his party further. Rane is a Maratha, though not from the sugar belt. His induction in the NCP would have made Pawar far more powerful than he is today, in the state as well as at the Centre. Then he would have dictated even to Sonia Gandhi as to who should be chief minister and how Maharashtra should be governed. But Rane proved to be a maverick and far more independent minded than Pawar had reckoned. He joined the Congress, knowing that the party did not have an aggressive leadership with a mass base. Sonia too welcomed him for the same reasons.

Pawar has not forgiven the Konkani Maratha since then. Nor has Rane accepted Pawar8217;s leadership. The confrontation on Bajaj has its origin in Rane making a huge dent in the NCP when the Legislative Council elections were held last week. Both the Congress and the NCP could get three seats each elected on the merit of their strength in the assembly. But both had surplus votes, but they could not be productively used without splitting the BJP and the Shiv Sena8217;s ranks. Rane succeeded in doing so, and got his man into the council. In the process, he also managed to split the NCP8217;s ranks. This was a politics of vengeance. Pawar had helped defeat one Rane candidate by covertly supporting a Shiv Sena rival even while overtly supporting the Congress. Rane had paid Pawar in the same coin.

The game is still on and now Pawar has foisted on the Congress front the candidature of Bajaj. There is a grand ideological compromise in this. Bajaj is a strong opponent of the reservation in elite educational institutions as well as in the private sector. The NCP, on the other hand, is agitating for reservation. Chhagan Bhujbal, Pawar8217;s right-hand man, had even organised a huge rally of OBCs in New Delhi, to which he had invited leaders from all political parties. Even the BJP and the Shiv Sena are supporting the reservation policy. Yet the three-party alliance has backed Bajaj. This has embarrassed all of them. The Congress has questioned the legitimacy of this politics and accused the NCP, BJP and Shiv Sena of rank opportunism.

Be that as it may, for all practical purposes the ruling Progressive Front of the two Congresses in Maharashtra is vertically as well as horizontally split. There is talk in the Congress that it should withdraw from the front and force the NCP to form a government with the BJP and the Sena. That three-party alliance cannot even form a government, forget lasting the remaining term of the assembly. In that situation the Congress would gain if elections come. In that situation the Congress can win on its own over-160 seats. The argument is that the Sena is fragmented, the BJP has lost self-confidence as well as credibility and the NCP would stand exposed.

The second strategy contemplated is that Rane be made chief minister, thereby confronting Pawar8217;s brinkmanship. Rane would initiate the kind of mass politics which had been the hallmark of the Congress during Indira Gandhi8217;s days. The third move under consideration is dissolution of the assembly.

But does the Congress have the courage to adopt any of these strategies? It is distinctly possible that the Congress will meekly surrender to the aggressive postures of Pawar so as not to disturb the apple cart in Delhi. But surrendering to Pawar could prove to be politically very costly in the next election.

Sharad Pawar has thrown down the gauntlet by announcing Bajaj8217;s candidature. It remains to be seen whether the Congress is in a position to respond.

The writer is editor, 8216;Lok Satta8217; kumar.ketkarexpressindia.com