Opinion Best of Both Sides | Shyam Saran writes: Trump has shown India needs a new foreign policy plan
It should be evident that the steady upward trajectory of India-US relations of the past 25 years has now stalled and is unlikely to revive despite the rhetoric coming from the US embassy
In the first year of Trump’s second term, India-US ties have been turbulent. What’s next?(Illustration: C R Sasikumar) The noisy entry of Ambassador-designate Sergio Gor into the American embassy on January 12 and his very upbeat remarks seem to have rekindled hopes of resuming the upward trajectory of the past 25 years in India-US relations. Indian officials watching from nearby South Block will be looking for any straws in the wind presaging that the bilateral trade agreement, already wrapped and ready for Trump’s approval, will finally be concluded. But if US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is to be believed, what Donald Trump is waiting for is a supplicatory call from Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Trump is likely to say, “You don’t hold any cards.” One hopes PM Modi does not make that call, because as the events of the past year show, supplication invites contempt and serial ignominy. Just ask any European leader. In the geopolitical card game that Trump is playing, it is only China that holds a strong hand, with its stranglehold on rare earths and magnets. So, Trump is deferential to President Xi Jinping and wants a “grand bargain” with him. When Japan is threatened by China for its prime minister’s remarks on the existential importance of Taiwan to Japanese security, Trump warns his own ally not to provoke Beijing.
He has stated that with respect to Taiwan, it was for China to decide what it wanted to do, but that he would be “unhappy” if it decided to invade Taiwan. This sounds like a write-off of Taiwan, and with it, the Indo-Pacific strategy, in which partnership with India has been a critical component. The “Quadrilateral” or Quad among India, the US, Australia, and Japan is a likely casualty. In his remarks at the embassy, Gor said that Trump may visit India in a “year or two”, which indicates that the Quad is no longer a US priority.
As we begin year two of Trump, it should be evident that the steady upward trajectory of India-US relations of the past 25 years has now stalled and is unlikely to revive despite the rhetoric coming from the US embassy or the belated inclusion of India in the US-led Pax Silica initiative. The downward turn is being aggravated by the growing hostility towards Indian-Americans and Indian expatriates in the US. This will provoke anti-American sentiment in India and complicate the handling of bilateral relations.
Functional collaboration in defence, counter-terrorism, and scientific and technical cooperation remains intact, and Delhi should not do anything to risk what remain significant assets in India’s economic transformation and in the building up of its advanced technological capabilities. India is a very large market and a key source of high-end manpower for the most powerful of the American high-tech companies. This may be the one card that Trump will consider, since he relies on their tacit support.
Trump’s inauguration as President in January 2025 was welcomed by PM Modi’s government, which believed it enjoyed a degree of ideological affinity with the incoming US administration and that there was a personal rapport between the PM and Trump. PM Modi, by all accounts, had a successful visit to Washington early in the year, and there was every expectation that India would be among the first countries to conclude a trade deal with the US. The meeting of the Quad foreign ministers, convened by incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio soon after the inauguration, suggested that there would be continuity in the US Indo-Pacific strategy and that US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific would continue as an enduring reality. The bottom has been knocked out from under these assumptions.
The change in India-US relations may have been precipitated by personal pique felt by Trump when his alleged role in bringing about a ceasefire between India and Pakistan during Operation Sindoor was not acknowledged by India, nor was he nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize by PM Modi, while the Pakistani side did so volubly. But personal pique is an aggravating factor, not one of the key drivers. The latter lies in changing geopolitics, the steady decline in US power vis-à-vis China, and the reordering of America’s place in this changing landscape. A Cold War 2.0 appears inescapable, but its nature will be different, with both collusion and confrontation in roughly equal measure between the two superpowers.
India should go back to the drawing board and rethink its foreign policy. The earlier Cold War may offer lessons. That awaits another exploration, but the key will lie in India’s ability to accelerate its growth, build up its economic, technological, and security capabilities, stabilise its periphery, and build a network of strong partnerships with countries across the global spectrum.
The writer is a former foreign secretary
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