What next for Ajit, Sharad Pawar after both NCPs are routed in Maharashtra civic polls?

With the NCP reuniting with the Sharad Pawar-led NCP(SP) for these polls, the loss not only dents the Pawars’ influence but also raises questions on their political future as the BJP continues to expand its presence in Maharashtra.

What is the future of NCP and NCP(SP)?

The biggest question is, where does this massive blow leave the two Pawars? The two NCP parties came together for the first time since Deputy CM Ajit Pawar split the party to join the Mahayuti in 2023. This was forced by political expedience as both needed to defeat the BJP and regain their lost strongholds in the PMC and PCMC.

The Opposition NCP (SP) stares at an uncertain future as it has failed to open an account in 24 civic bodies till the time of writing this report. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP, which contested against the BJP in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, also faced a complete rout.

The Deputy CM’s strategy to challenge the BJP during these elections appears to have backfired. As a result, he will now be forced to either quietly cooperate with the BJP within the Mahayuti government or look at a merger with the NCP (SP) in the face of the BJP’s continued domination and shrinking options for both. It remains to be seen if the two tie up again for the Zilla Parishad elections later this month.

Since his rebellion in 2023, Ajit Pawar maintained a harmonious relationship with the BJP. In contrast to Shinde, he rarely took a stand against the BJP. That changed in these elections. When Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis announced that the BJP would contest independently in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, the Deputy CM joined hands with his estranged uncle, attempting to keep his feet in both boats. During the campaign, Ajit Pawar targeted the BJP over alleged corruption in Pimpri-Chinchwad, which did not go down well with BJP leaders. They hit back, with BJP state president Ravindra Chavan stating that the party “regretted taking Ajit Pawar along.”

With voters in both the civic bodies rejecting Ajit Pawar’s strategy — the only silver lining for the NCP was its victory in Ahilyanagar in alliance with the BJP —  he will now have to reassess his strategy and decide whether to keep his head down and coordinate with the BJP, which may look to take advantage of his weakened standing, or bury differences with his uncle for good.

Here is how the BJP pulled off the two wins on the Pawars’ turf:

Impact of Lok Sabha, Assembly polls

Though the Mahayuti had suffered a blow in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP was the best performer among its allies and had recorded a third consecutive win in the Pune Parliamentary constituency.

But its recovery in the ensuing Assembly elections was remarkable, with the BJP winning all the seats it contested as part of the Mahayuti in Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad. The party won all six seats of the eight seats it contested in Pune and both seats in Pimpri-Chinchwad.

The results of these municipal corporation elections have consolidated the BJP’s hold in this region, particularly as they came in the face of the strong opposition from the Pawars.

Though the BJP had been part of alliances that held majorities in the previous terms of the Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad municipal corporations from 2017 to 2022, this election marks the first time the party has come to power on its own.

The BJP has strengthened its base since the previous term, with its focus on initiating major infrastructure projects in the twin cities, with the help of the state and Central governments, proving fruitful in the municipal corporation polls.

Inducting strong contenders from rival parties

The BJP continued its strategy of inducting strong candidates from rival political parties in these elections, including prospective candidates of the NCP, NCP(SP), Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress.

Notable among them were NCP(SP) MLA Bapu Pathare’s son Surendra and daughter-in-law Aishwarya. Pathare is influential in his Vadgaon Sheri Assembly constituency in the Pune district and has previously held posts in urban local bodies.

The BJP also inducted Abhijeet Shivarkar, son of former Congress state minister Balasaheb Shivarkar, besides several former corporators like the NCP(SP)’s Sachin Dodke, and the NCP’s Sayali Wanjale and Bala Dhankawade ahead of the civic polls.

Opportunities for fresh faces

Among the BJP’s 97 corporators who had won in the 2017 polls in the PMC, the party dropped 30 leaders in favour of new faces, including grassroots party workers. Despite protests over candidate selection, the BJP remained firm and cited “winnability” as the main criterion for its candidate choices.

Relatives of sitting legislators denied tickets

As a party policy in these elections, the BJP decided that no relatives of sitting MLAs or MPs would be given tickets to contest in the municipal corporations. Among those denied tickets were relatives of Union Minister of State Murlidhar Mohol, state minister Madhuri Misal, Rajya Sabha MP Medha Kulkarni, and MLAs Bhimrao Tapkir and Sunil Kamble despite their considerable political influence.

Rebellions checked

In the PMC, the BJP had to choose candidates from more than 2,500 aspirants for 165, leading to considerable unhappiness over the eventual denials of tickets.

To quell potential rebellions, the party ensured that it reached out to disappointed party workers personally and brought them on board to actively campaign for the official candidate. It pacified some unhappy aspirants by reiterating its policy to avoid fielding relatives of sitting legislators and instead favour new faces, a strategy that seems to have appealed to party workers and yielded results among voters.

Targeting NCP’s ‘criminal’ candidates

Though it faced a stiff challenge from the Pawars-led NCP-NCP(SP) alliance, the BJP did not shy away from directly attacking Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar despite being an ally at the state level. In particular, the BJP criticised the NCP-NCP(SP) alliance for fielding candidates with criminal backgrounds.

But the BJP also benefited from a division of votes between the Congress and NCP(SP), who are state-level allies in the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi MVA).

(With inputs from Soham Shah)