
The imprint of the Godhra and post-Godhra violence on the outcome of the 2002 Assembly polls in Gujarat was distinct. Will it leave one this time too? How much electoral steam is left in the issue?
Some people believe that Godhra is no longer a major issue in the coming polls but that8217;s not to say that the life of the families affected by the riots and displaced have returned to normal. While a large number of people 48 per cent did not voice any opinion on this issue, it is important to note that 34 per cent people in Gujarat believe that many Muslim families, who ran away from their villages, have still not returned. Only 18 per cent believe the opposite.
This is not the opinion of just Muslims who constitute 9 per cent population in the state. The opinion was expressed more or less uniformly among people from different caste and communities.
This difference of opinion among the common people on this issue has a bearing on their political choices. The BJP is likely to lose some support among those voters who believe that many Muslim families have not been able to return to their villages. The findings of the survey indicate, among those voters who think many Muslim families have not been able to return to their villages, 45 per cent intended voting for the BJP. But the interesting finding is that those who think that the riot-displaced Muslim families have returned to their villages, 57 per cent intended voting for the BJP. These voters can be seen as the committed voters of the BJP who have chosen to make an assessment on party lines. But whether the dissenting voters, who are in small numbers, can affect the political outcome, remains to be seen.