Explained: How will the novel coronavirus behave in the winter?

Experts agree, in fact, that most of the evidence for seasonal viruses indicate they are more active during the cooler months of the year.

An illustration of othe novel coronavirus. (AP Photo)

After surviving the summer and the monsoon, how will SARS-CoV-2 behave in winter? While the World Health Organization (WHO) cautions that there is no reason to believe that cold weather can kill the coronavirus, the jury is still out on the precise impact of temperature on the coronavirus.

Experts agree, in fact, that most of the evidence for seasonal viruses indicate they are more active during the cooler months of the year. For instance, in many parts of the world, there is a winter seasonality for influenza, and in India and regions of similar climate, there is a monsoon peak and a smaller winter peak. Experts, however, also point out that there has been no definite trend for Covid-19 yet.

coronavirus in winter, coronavirus, covid in winter, coronavirus winter, winter and coronavirus, india covid cases, indian express

How is the coronavirus likely to behave in winter?

What kind of seasonality has the novel coronavirus shown so far?

Viral illnesses, especially respiratory, are supposed to thrive in colder temperatures worldwide, the obvious example being the flu virus that causes the most deaths in winters, observed Dr Shashank Joshi, Dean, Indian College of Physicians. “It has been postulated that coronavirus infections would be more prevalent during winter in the temperate geographies of the world. However, it has not shown any temperature relationship till date with seasons in tropical geographies,” Dr Joshi said.

What kind of sensationally has the novel coronavirus shown so far?

“There does not appear to be a strong seasonality of Covid-19 yet, like there is for other respiratory diseases such as influenza,” Prof Ian Barr, Deputy Director, WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza — The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity in Melbourne, told The Indian Express.

“However, in places like India which have a more diverse range of seasons for influenza – at least the peak season is during the rainy/monsoon season (June to September) rather than winter. At this stage, I don’t think it matters for Covid-19. This may change when vaccines are in use. While other respiratory pathogens predominate in winter/rainy seasons, Covid-19 does not fit this pattern as yet,” Prof Barr said.

Why is winter generally associated with a spike in viral diseases?

Why is winter generally associated with a spike in viral infections?

In western countries, winters can be severe and people tend to stay indoors. Hence the reasoning goes that the virus, once introduced, can circulate among people sharing the same premises.

According to virologists, however, this does not hold true in the Indian context. Dr M S Chadha, former Deputy Director of the National Institute of Virology, said people in India do not necessarily remain indoors and ventilation is better. “In northern states too people seek sunshine and so they are out,” Dr Chadha said.

Story continues below this ad

In states like Maharashtra, which have been tracking H1N1 (swine flu virus) since 2009, there are usually two surges — during the monsoon, and during the winter to a lower extent. According to Maharashtra surveillance officer, Dr Pradeep Awate, the winter surge is less than half the monsoon surge.

📣 Express Explained is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@ieexplained) and stay updated with the latest

Coronavirus trends in other countries

What have the coronavirus trends been like in other countries?

Since influenza is a winter illness, the southern hemisphere should have seen a spike in cases during their May-July winter, but that did not happen this year. In fact, even influenza cases did not spike. This is being attributed potentially to measures taken against Covid-19 — lack of interactions between people may have broken the chain of transmissions for influenza, too.

Should India be worried?

Should Indians worry?

Story continues below this ad

India may get a second peak in winter, especially in the northern part of the country, said Dr Shashank Joshi.

According to Dr Gagandeep Kang, clinical scientist and vaccine researcher, there have been limited lockdowns with phase-wise opening up in the last few months, which is likely to push transmission up in winter. “But masks will drive it down. So we need to wait and see,” Dr Kang said.

Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions. ... Read More