As Andhra Pradesh votes today, how a resurgent TDP is hoping to dislodge Jagan Mohan Reddy

However, the NDA’s ace still is PM Modi’s popularity and it will be hoping that will pay dividends in the urban and semi-urban areas. Though the BJP has little organisational presence in the state, the NDA parties are so confident of their ability of allies to transfer votes among themselves that of the five Lok Sabha seats in the East and West Godavari districts, two have been allotted to the BJP — Naraspuram and Rajahmundry (state BJP chief D Purandeswari is contesting).

Harish alleges that Amalapuram has been neglected by the YSRCP. “Jagan only concentrated on welfare, but people also want to see some development along with welfare that makes their lives easier. As a Dalit, I also want to work for the uplift of my community in the Konaseema region,” he says.

Ponnada Nageshwar, a timber merchant in the Amalapuram (SC-reserved) Assembly segment, who was vying for a ticket from the JSP, says, “In many constituencies, especially semi-urban ones, the TDP is looking to harvest anti-incumbency votes because of the goodwill of PM Modi.”

In neighbouring East and West Godavari districts — which have 34 Assembly segments between them — an urban and rural divide has taken shape. While urban voters display a pro-TDP tilt, rural voters are behind the CM.

“Jagan will become CM again,” says K Chandru, a 32-year-old fruit seller in Bhimadole village near Eluru. “I receive some welfare money, while my mother and wife get some other benefits … It helps a lot … I was able to buy a moped on a loan and have repaid it. We are happy with Jagan,” he adds.

A part of the reason for the anti-incumbency factor against the YSRCP strengthening is that the state government’s welfare schemes are targeted at lower-income groups. Last December, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) lost the Assembly polls despite its numerous welfare schemes.

On the outskirts of Eluru, first-time voters Jagdish and Rudra say their families are grateful for Jagan’s welfare initiatives. “We do not even know who the local YSRCP candidate is but our vote will be for Jagan and the fan (the YSRCP symbol),” Jagdish says.

In contrast, insurance salesman G Venkataramana Rao in Eluru city says the CM squandered away a good mandate by focusing only on welfare. “How long do people want to live on doles? They want their children to have jobs and steady incomes when they grow up. They want better civic infrastructure and more proactive local government officials,” Rao says, adding that TDP has been gaining ground.

Another major factor across the East and West Godavari districts is the powerful Kapu community. In each constituency, the Kapu vote share is 15-18%. In 2019, as Kapus moved away from the TDP to support the YSRCP, the latter made a clean sweep, winning 14 of 19 seats in East Godavari, and 13 of 15 in West Godavari.

The Kapu factor

The Kapus are holding their cards close to their chest this time. “There is a lot of dissent among Kapus over the lack of jobs and rising prices of essential commodities,” says a Kapu leader in Narsapuram.

Dr K P N Satya Prasad, a well-known physician from Bhimavaram who helped K Chiranjeevi found the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) in August 2008, says the Kapus and other communities are showing signs of tilting towards the NDA. “Even among the beneficiaries of Jagan’s welfare schemes, not everyone is happy due to rising prices. But they form the core YSRCP support. If YSRCP candidates have to win, all the beneficiaries have to vote for them en masse, otherwise it will be difficult,” he says. The NDA has also targeted the doles handed out by the Jagan government, alleging they pushed the state into a financial mess.

Anticipating anti-incumbency in many constituencies, Jagan initially dropped sitting MLAs or changed their constituencies. However, after realising that the “wave” he had anticipated in his favour was missing, Jagan embarked on a 22-day statewide bus tour in March.

Though the bus yatra generated a buzz in his favour, in north Andhra districts such as Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, and Srikakulam — with a total of 34 Assembly seats — YSRCP candidates are facing tough competition from the NDA. But in Rayalaseema, or the southern part of the state, where the YSRCP made a clean sweep in 2019 by winning 49 of the 52 Assembly seats, the party appears in control in most constituencies.

“The TDP may have lost the Muslim vote in Rayalaseema districts after it allied with the BJP. Jagan’s advantage is that even though he has supported the BJP at the Centre in the past, in these polls, the BJP is on the other side,” says Ramgopal Reddy, a former Congress leader.