Opinion The great Game Folio

Kayani’s supporters say he should get the credit for restoring the army’s clout at home after

Musharraf’s departure,improving Rawalpindi’s leverage over US policy in Afghanistan,and pushing India off-balance.

If Kayani has become the new mascot for the permanent establishment in Pakistan,the leader of the People’s Party and the president of the nation,Asif Ali Zardari has every reason to be wary of the general. The leader of the main opposition party,Nawaz Sharif too has had difficulties in reconciling the dominance of the army. The civilian distrust of Kayani does not necessarily mean he will not get an extension.

Speculation on Kayani’s future has mounted after Pakistan’s defence minister,Chaudhary Ahmad Mukhtar,surprised observers a few days ago when he said “General Kayani is neither being considered for an extension nor has he asked for one”.

Then came the clarification from Premier Yousaf Raza Gilani,seen as having a little more of the army’s trust than Zardari,who said no decision has been taken. Latest reports from Pakistan now say the army’s corps commanders — who are the directors on the board of Pakistan’s Army Inc. — are supporting an extension to their chief. The commanders are apparently saying that Kayani’s continued leadership is necessary to “consolidate the current gains in the war against terror”. Opponents argue that the emphasis on personalities will undermine the much needed effort to create a stable and democratic institutional structures in Pakistan.

There is also the talk of Kayani being offered a bigger post,the chief of defence staff,with oversight over all the armed forces — including the air force and the navy. Those familiar with Pakistan might say whoever wears the uniform of the army chief will rule the nation. Meanwhile,five months is a long time in politics and much could happen in Pakistan between now and November.

Taliban offensive

As the US forces prepare for a difficult campaign to win control of Kandahar — Afghanistan’s second largest city and the heart of the Pashtun lands — the Taliban has mounted some bold attacks against the international forces in the last few days. Clearly,we are in for a bloody,if not necessarily decisive,summer in Afghanistan.

Amidst the unfolding US military surge in Afghanistan,the size of the American troop presence there has crossed that in Iraq for the first time since 2003,when Washington chose to open a new front in Iraq.

If the US decision to turn its attention away from Afghanistan,which it occupied at the end of 2001,is widely seen now as a mistake,no one is betting that increased US military focus on Afghanistan will halt the new momentum behind the Taliban.

The Taliban signalled its new self-assurance by bombarding the well fortified US base at Bagram outside Kabul,the Kandahar airfield,and launching a suicide attack on a convoy of NATO troops right in the heart of Kabul.

Pakistani Role

After arresting seven persons of an alleged cell for plotting the suicide attack,Kabul blamed Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency. The spokesman for Afghanistan’s intelligence service,Saeed Ansari,did not mince words when he met reporters in Kabul on Monday. “We are saying that they have been trained on the other side of the border,so it is clear that the intelligence service of our neighbouring country has its role in the training and supporting of this terrorist group”.

According to Ansari,the same militant group was also involved in the attacks last February on guest houses where Indians stayed. While Ansari’s charges were rejected outright by the foreign office in Pakistan,the new Taliban offensive should add to the pressure on the Pakistan army to act against its many militant friends enjoying sanctuary in North Waziristan.

raja.mohan@expressindia.com