Opinion Don’t just rush to the exit

The 2014 NATO end date will prove illusory unless there is an endgame. And that endgame must be negotiations with all factions in the Afghan struggle and their regional backers.

The issue is not that the political arm of the Defence-Development-Diplomacy triad has been missing in action. A political settlement is not one part of a multi-pronged strategy in a counter-insurgency; it is the overarching framework within which everything else fits and in the service of which everything else operates.

First,the UNSC needs to appoint a mediator to facilitate talks,setting out principles of the endgame and an invitation to all. The mediator should come from the Muslim world. His job would be to create the confidence for,and commitment to,a process for talks. He should develop the idea of a safe place in a third country for all sides to talk. We need steps by which each side can prove its bona fides. The Taliban want an end to night raids,safe passage,prisoner releases. We need to propose localised ceasefires,security for development projects,a Taliban declaration of disassociation from Al Qaeda.

Third,there should be clarity of civilian command,to match the clarity of military command. As the US appoints a new ambassador this year,this appointment needs the personality,instruction and length of mandate to convene and cohere the disparate strands of civilian effort. The job description would include being President Hamid Karzai’s interlocutor and liaising with the military.

Pakistan needs a long-term relationship with the US and the EU based on responsibility and respect. It cannot have privilege,but pressure will not get it to deliver. Pakistan needs an upfront deal that we will support their long-term security in return for their help now in protecting ours; the alternative is that we end up negotiating with the Taliban and Pakistan in a delayed endgame.

The new UN envoy should be responsible for regional talks. In the first instance,these should be bilateral. The medium-term goal should be a council of regional stability that oversees a compact between the neighbours.

Our leverage will decline,not improve,as 2014 approaches. The insurgency can spread; the warlords can strengthen their grip. Inter-ethnic strife can come to look more and more like civil war. Two international conferences,in Kabul and Bonn,currently have scant agenda or preparation. The agreement on a new political approach would make them historic occasions. It is time we stopped behaving as if there were a military solution and developed a political one. For that politicians need to give a lead. That is the way forward in Afghanistan: working to mend it,not rushing to end it.

The writer was UK foreign secretary.