Generational shift? Not really

Politicians belonging to the emergency generation dominate Indian politics,says a study.

That India is an increasingly young country and the young form a substantial swathe of the voting population,is a statement of fact. But that statement is often extended to a sweeping conclusion: that Indian politics is witnessing a generational shift; that it is,or at any rate soon will be,filled by different,younger issues.

The young-in-age may not always equal the young-in-ideas. But there is another problem with the young are poised to radically transform our politics thesis: the young may not have arrived in politics yet. In other words,in spite of their growing numbers as voters,they still may not have access to,they still may not occupy a critical mass of positions of power.

A new study,Generational Change: Political Parties and the Party System by political scientist KK Kailash, who teaches in Panjab University,Chandigarh,to be published in an upcoming volume on party systems in India assesses generational change across 15 political parties.

It concludes that political parties in India are dominated by politicians belonging to the emergency generation,and within that,those born between 1950 and 1959. This generation accounts for nearly 77 per cent of the leaders across political parties. The independence generation that has supplied all the prime ministers of this country,has been all but eclipsed,constituting a little less than 15 per cent of the party leadership personnel.

But the age group Kailash marks out as the emerging political generation,and which we usually label as the youth,forms a little less than 9 per cent in the leadership positions of parties. In other words,the youth may get all the attention,but it is the emergency generation that still calls the shots in Indian politics.

Made up of people who were born between 1940 and 1966 the last of this generation would have turned 18 before 1984 the emergency generation was formed and created around the defining political events in that historical time such as the JP movement and the Emergency that followed.

This generation,the study points out,witnessed both the one-party dominance system that the Congress presided over as well as the decline of the Congress-system. This is also the time when new political players and parties that challenged the Congress crossed the threshold of political success and survival. The assassination of Mrs Gandhi is the political marker for the end of this generation.

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The emerging new generation,made up of those born between the years 1967 and 1989,coincides with the coming of Rajiv Gandhi to power. In terms of the party system,in the words of political scientists Susanne Hoeber Rudolph and Lloyd I Rudolph,it is in this phase that the Congress learns to lose.

The dominance of the emergency generation has a political undertow and some implications. Many of the alliances and relationships formed during that particular phase in the anti-Congress arena continue to serve as the source of political solidarity and conflict today. It was in this period,too,that caste became the predominant theme of social justice and a major tool of political mobilisation.

It was also the time for another crucial shift that is still with us when the legitimacy of the politician that earlier relied upon the projection of a sense of impartiality and even-handedness,gave way to its opposite. The study quotes political scientist Sudipto Kaviraj: Politicians were seen to be legitimised not by their claim or pretence to universalism,but by their evident and aggressively declared affiliation to particular interests.

Within the bigger picture,there are specific pointers. While it may be generally bowing out of our politics,the independence generation still has a hold in parties such as the CPM and DMK that draw more than a quarter of their leadership from this generation. The Congress,JKN Jammu amp; Kashmir National Conference and Shiromani Akali Dal follow closely with 20 per cent or more of their leadership from the same generation. It is also significantly represented in other parties such as the BJP,CPI and NCP. Other political parties,however,draw less than 10 per cent of their leadership from this generation. Barring the DMK,JKN and the MNS,more than 70 per cent of the leadership is from the emergency generation in other parties.

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There appears to be a correlation between the age of the leader and the leadership profile of the party. For instance,both the MNS and JKN are led by leaders of the emerging political generation and more than a quarter of their leadership is also drawn from this generation.

According to the study,the emerging political generation has the lowest representation in the leadership positions of the two Left parties. The BSP and SAD,too,rank at the bottom of the list of parties in terms of their hospitality to this generation.

Significantly,according to the study,while parliamentary representation presents a broadly similar picture,and those born between the years 1950 and 1959 dominate Parliament just as they control key leadership positions in parties,the Lok Sabha is likely to get younger faster than the political party.

While the emerging generation occupies only 8.47 per cent of the leadership positions within political parties,in Parliament,their position is almost doubled with 16.88 per cent representation.