Bargaining bill

In the course of signing the 662-billion US defence spending bill,President Barack Obama has suspended 60 per cent of the 1.1 billion military aid to Pakistan. This chunk of aid is now conditioned on reports from the US secretaries of state and defence as to Islamabads progress in the war on terror,particularly its action against improvised explosive devices IEDs,one of the biggest killers of US soldiers in Afghanistan. This specific provision of the US defence bill has,expectedly,drawn condemnation from Pakistan and will,apparently,further strain bilateral relations. However,it must be seen in context. In the shorter run,that context is the steady worsening of relations since the May 2 killing of Osama bin Laden. In the longer term,the sharpening contradictions between Washington and Islamabad since 9/11.

Against the backdrop of the impending US exit from Afghanistan and Pakistans internal conflicts terrorism against the Pakistani state and the strategic use of terror by Pakistans military-espionage establishment,as well as the current war of words between the civilian government and the military both reason and passion around the bill have to be read into a broader narrative of Islamabad and Washington stepping up the pressure on each other. The bill does not shut the door on negotiations,and leaves room for discretion. What it certainly is not,is the end of US aid to Pakistan. Far from it,neither Islamabad nor Washington can do without the other,and they both know it well. Pakistans need of American money and assistance to prop up its crumbling economy,among other things,is ultimately dependent on continued US goodwill. The US,while fully aware of Islamabads leveraging of the China card,knows that the denouement of this delicate and explosive balance in bilateral relations depends on the ground situation in Af-Pak,and that it needs Islamabad all the more so because of its impending withdrawal.

Pakistans use of its geographical location to extract geostrategic rent conditions the endgame in Afghanistan. The continued turbulence in US-Pak relations has significance for New Delhi,as a Pakistan without Americas strategic proximity would be a much more dangerous place. India has to look across its western border,but take all loud protestations from either Islamabad or Washington with a pinch of salt,as part of a mutual posturing and bargaining,which nevertheless reflects the Af-Pak state of play.