The Gujarat gamble

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi8217;s decision to precipitate an early election in the state is unlikely to surprise anyone. He seemed...

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi8217;s decision to precipitate an early election in the state is unlikely to surprise anyone. He seemed to have been waiting for the presidential election to be over to recommend dissolution of the Assembly. As Modi enjoys a clear majority support in the House, it is his prerogative to make such a recommendation, which is binding on the governor. But this does not make his decision morally sound for his attempt is guided by crude political considerations. As it is, the BJP government did not face any threat from either the Opposition or any factions in the ruling party and it had eight more months to complete its term. Most byelections held since the party came to power had gone in favour of the Congress. In other words, nothing dramatic has happened in the interregnum to metamorphose the fortunes of the BJP except the Godhra incident and the pogrom that followed it. Its crude calculation is that the polarisation that has followed Godhra will stand the BJP in good stead in the next elections. Hence its eagerness for an election as quickly as possible.

How far the ground situation justifies Modi8217;s enthusiasm for an election is a matter of conjecture. Obviously, he presupposes that a majority of Gujarat8217;s voters approves of his total failure to prevent Godhra and the organised violence against the minorities that followed. He also believes that the voters are so overwhelmed by the violence caused by his inaction on the law and order front 8212; which had ultimately forced the Centre to send supercop K.P.S. Gill to restore a semblance of normalcy in the state 8212; that they would vote him back to power with a thumping majority. In any case, he has a dim view of the maturity of the voters who have in the past proved their knack of shocking politicians. To cite just two such instances, the voters turned against the BJP in the elections to four state assemblies held soon after its cadres demolished the Babri Masjid. Kerala8217;s E.K. Nayanar received the shock of his life when his decision in 1991 to advance elections in the state by a year proved a foolish move, when his party was pushed out of the treasury benches.

Demands have come that elections in Gujarat should be held under President8217;s rule. Given the willingness of the NDA government to consider imposing Governor8217;s rule in Jammu and Kashmir before elections are held in that state, such demands are unlikely to raise eyebrows. In fact, state elections should only be held under president8217;s rule to prevent the misuse of the official machinery for elections and to curtail the practice of advancing elections before they are due. Such a system has been in vogue in Bangladesh for some time now. Gujarat and J038;K are fit cases to make a beginning in this direction.