India vs New Zealand, 3rd ODI: Will dew in Indore make winning the toss the most important factor?

The consensus, from curators and officials to players and fans, is that Sunday’s ODI is likely to be a run fest. That’s good news for the paying Indori public, a city that loves its cricket, which may be seeing India’s ageing batting superstars, Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma, for the last time. Like everywhere else the duo have travelled to over the past few months, fans here would like to see them make runs.

India’s Shubhman Gill, Mohammed Siraj, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Arshdeep Singh and others during a training session ahead of the third ODI cricket match between India and New Zealand, at Holkar Cricket Stadium, in Indore, Madhya Pradesh, Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026. (PTI Photo)

These conditions might suit India just fine as they enter the deciding contest of the series with their spinners in indifferent form and the balance of their squad, especially the bowling, off-kilter following the injury to all-rounder Washington Sundar.

Those elements have contributed to the making of two closely-fought games. India’s vastly better side on paper has not imposed its superiority on a plucky group of visitors that ran them close in the first ODI in Vadodara, and then outplayed them with better batting against spin on a two-paced pitch in Rajkot.

The conditions in Indore, though, play more to traditional white-ball strengths. The worst of the winter seems to have elapsed in Madhya Pradesh; afternoons are bright and sunny, and evenings bring with them cooler air and more moisture. The black soil centre strip to be used for the game is unlikely to break apart as the day progresses. The ball is likely to bounce well and spin won’t be a major factor. That, combined with the dimensions of this ground, as Siraj pointed out, with square boundaries just 65-70m long, means that heady accumulations can be expected here.

India’s starry batting order trained with the kind of intensity and intention on Saturday that suggested that they are licking their lips at the conditions on offer. Kohli and Gill evenly distributed their time during their two-hour-long training session between facing the quicks, the spinners and the side-arm. The former punished anything that fell short and used his footwork to meet the pitch of the spin and go after it; his newfound early attacking template was just as obvious as his re-found hunger for runs. Rohit, meanwhile, having not gotten going in the series so far, focused most of his time against the quicks.

A concerning element of India’s defeat in Rajkot was their inability to play out New Zealand’s pretty understrength spin attack. Their middle order found themselves struggling for both timing and momentum, which is why KL Rahul and Ravindra Jadeja spent so much time attempting crafty sweeps and reverse sweeps in the nets.

But bowling is a more pressing issue. Washington Sundar’s replacement in the side was Ayush Badoni, a batter who can chip in with some off-spin. It is unlikely for the untested Delhi batter to get the nod over Nitish Reddy, who seems to be playing predominantly as a lower-order batter, barely entrusted as a sixth bowling option, bowling only two overs in Rajkot.

Arshdeep factor

Which is all the more reason India could use Arsdheep Singh. Having missed out in the first two, conditions for the deciding ODI in Indore play into Arshdeep’s strengths, a fact that felt obvious as he bolted in to test Kohli, Rohit and Gill in the nets on Saturday. Having a first-strike left-arm pacer with his kind of variations and ability to move the ball both ways can be a useful trump card on a belter.

Early wickets in both innings are likely to be key, especially considering how much the weather changes from the afternoon to the evening: the temperatures halving and dew playing an outsized advantage for the chasing side.

“Dew may play a big role especially with the humidity around. With the cooler air in the evening it can get pretty wet,” New Zealand all-rounder Glenn Phillips told the media on Saturday. “Otherwise, the pitch looks fantastic (to bat on). Obviously every pitch behaves differently but past experience here suggests we are looking at a run-fest.”

Even if the match turns into a lottery hinged on the toss, a “run-fest” would suit India better than the kind of tetchy affair that played out in Rajkot. It’ll come in handy in avoiding the ignominy of suffering a first defeat to New Zealand in a home series when the visitors had eight players in the squad that have never even travelled to these shores.