Opportunity to keep quiet

From transatlantic confabulations in the Azores to media packs in Amman, the countdown to war has been sounded. US President George W. Bush ...

From transatlantic confabulations in the Azores to media packs in Amman, the countdown to war has been sounded. US President George W. Bush has stepped up his counsels of war, his marines amassed on the road to Baghdad have been put through drills in battling amidst desert storms 8212; and everywhere else heads of government are scanning the contours of the emerging world order.

The French and Russians, in Bush8217;s Texan imagery, may have showed their cards 8212; but others are keeping their own counsel. China, a permanent member of the Security Council, is silent on its right to veto; non-permanent members like Guinea, Angola and Pakistan have encouraged both pro and anti-war camps to woo them, keeping all guessing which way they could swing in a possible vote in a possible follow-up resolution to 1441.

In India, we are casting our ballot in an election no one8217;s yet invited us to! War clouds are visible, and the political establishment is leaving no decision for a rainy day. The situation may be fluid in the Gulf, but India8217;s response, it seems, must be etched in stone. This weekend, Defence Minister George Fernandes ruled out refuelling facilities for war planes headed for Baghdad 8212; even as Bush and his British, Spanish and Portugese allies sought to present their council of war as a last chance for diplomacy.

Last week in Parliament, MPs of Nehruvian, communist and socialist extraction, sought to spur Prime Minister Vajpayee not only to condemn a possible invasion of Iraq, but also to distance itself from post-war reconstruction. In this hurry to nail together a podium and declaim, government and opposition leaders alike sprinkle rhetoric with an array of demands: a call for India to take the lead in non-alignment, an insistence that the UN stamp alone shall determine the legitimacy of any military action.

This rush to pass judgement betrays the anxiety of a nation worried that its concerns will be passed over. They do not behove the political leadership of a country convinced of its prominent role in the emerging world order, a country confident that its considered view will be heeded by the rich and powerful. To return to Bush8217;s poker analogy, there is much merit in cannily, quietly assessing the hand before going for the pot.