Kesri ploy to keep flock united

The UF seems to have left a door open. The UF convenor Chandrababu Naidu handed over a covering letter to the President on behalf of all the Front constituents tonight in which he is learnt to have asserted that the UF would not lend support to a BJP-led or a BJP-supported government or a Congress-led Government. There is no mention of a Congress-supported government. In other words, the UF would not be averse to support from the Congress, even though the party has pulled down the government.

All the UF constituents also handed over to the President individual letters stating their decision not to support either BJP-led or Congress-led governments. The Tamil Maanila Congress, however, had a rider in their letter formulated after a five-hour long meeting of party MPs held at the residence of M Arunachalam. It expressed itself against dissolution and for support to a combination provided it was stable and secular. The TMC would like to avoid polls at any cost. Otherwise it would be forced to take positions it cannot justify.

The President also appears to be against elections. He indicated to the UF leaders that he would like to explore all possible options. He is learnt to have told them that people did not want polls. He is also believed to have made a curious remarkthat he had received the resignation but had not yet accepted it. But late in the night, he accepted it.

Though the reality that the Congress cannot muster the requisite number stares Kesri in the the face, he had no option but to stake a claim, just as he had little option but to withdraw support to the Gujral government. Had the Congress just withdrawn support, there was the possibility of a group splitting to go with the BJP. Even though the BJP has been lying low, there was a serious move by it to try and form government by breaking the Congress. The party is meeting tomorrow and is still to open its cards though it has been talking about the inevitability of a mid term poll. A split in the Congress would have meant the end of Chacha Kesri8217;s presidentship of the party.

As of now, he may have sown some confusion among the party members of Parliament, even though Congress failure to mobilise numbers coming as it would after its dillying dallying of the last few days on the question of support-withdrawalis not going to cover it with glory. But that may be a small price to pay for Kesri fighting a bitter battle to upstage his opponents bahing for his blood.

Congress Working Committee members were telling MPs tonight that the President might invite Kesri without knowing where the support would come from, just as former President Shanker Dayal Sharma had called Atal Behari Vajpayee in May 1996. This, however, seems unlikely. But even the possibility of a Charan Singh scenario, of the Congress heading a caretaker government, was enough to assuage the feelings of the Congress MPs.

Moopanar does not have the support of the Left parties though he is acceptable to the Congress minus Kesri. In the present political configuration, Mulayam Singh Yadav still has an outside chance because he could be supported from the outside by the Left and the Congress, though there is a group Jitendra Prasada, Arjun Singh among others who would be opposed to him. His elevation would hijack their politics. In the final analysis the Tamil Maanila Congress TMC headed by Moopanar would support the Samajwadi Party leader. The pro-Mulayam lobby led by Kesri is hopeful that once the ball starts to roll, Naidu and the Asom Gana Parishad would fall in line. Though many in Janata Dal would oppose his candidature, 21 out of 28 members of Parliament MPs are opposed to elections.