NEW DELHI/MUMBAI, SEPT 1: India's export growth momentum slipped to a meagre 2.11 per cent in July after recording double digit growth rates for two consecutive months this fiscal.Exports during July are valued at $ 3.05 billion while the cumulative exports in April-July was $ 10.61 billion recording 4.04 per cent growth. Exports started picking up in May this fiscal after beginning with a meagre 2.09 per cent growth in April.Oil imports during the first four months surged by 51.05 per cent at $ 2.74 billion against $ 1.82 billion in the same period last year. But the trade deficit declined to $ 3.02 billion during the first four months, which is over eight per cent lower than the corresponding figure of $ 3.3 billion in 1998-99.Imports during April-July are estimated at $ 1.4 billion, which is 1.01 per cent higher than the level of $ 1.39 billion during the same period in 1998-99. Non-oil imports in the first four months declined by 6.53 per cent to 1.13 billion dollars compared to $ 1.2 billionlast year.Imports during July are valued at $ 3.57 billion representing a decline of 5.84 per cent over the level of import valued at $ 3.79 billion in July 1998.In rupee terms, exports grew by 3.97 per cent in July 1999 to Rs 13209.25 crore. During the first four months of the current financial year, exports grew by 8.45 per cent in rupee terms.Said Pradeep Srivastava, chief economist, National Council of Applied Economic Research, "Exports have not picked up very much. It is not a surprise as you would expect exports to pick up very gradually with much stiffer competition from Southeast Asian economies which are now recovering.''According to Aashish Pitale, head of research, JP Morgan, the biggest worry in the data is the oil imports. With oil prices going up we could expect this kind of rise. But a rise of 50 per cent in April-July is quite staggering. Going forward the oil prices have been higher in August which will lead to further rise in oil imports. This will widen the tradedeficit.''``Non-oil imports - which is a fair indication of economic recovery - are not really picking up. It is a concern,'' he said. "The April-July export and import figures are a little disappointing. Export growth has decelerated in July because the growth in April-July is only 4.1 percent compared to the 6.5 percent growth in April-June. Import growth in April-July is only one percent compared to the 4.5 percent growth in April-June. Non-oil imports are still lower than last year's levels," said Bidisha Ganguly, economist at SSKI Securities.Said T K Bhaumik, senior adviser, CII, ``The figures show that the economy was still in recession during April and July. Imports are more or less at the same level. Exports are only showing marginal growth. The much talked about recovery in exports is also not substantiated by the figure."
