Yearender 2025 | Indian politics: A year of deepening political divides sets the stage for another

This year witnessed the immediate — and perhaps far-reaching — impact of those changes world over. Trump’s disruptive tariff regime roiled the world of politics and diplomacy. Time-tested ties came under strain and new faultlines emerged. The impact of Trump’s punishing tariffs on the Indian economy is slowly being felt.

Despite fewer elections, however, the political discourse remained sharp and divisive around the globe.

India was no different. The governing and Opposition parties made no attempt to bridge their ever-widening chasm in communication and trust. There was little middle ground to be found on a range of issues — the Trump tariffs, the Pahalgam terror attack and the subsequent Operation Sindoor, the Special Intensive Revision of voter rolls, and the surprise resignation of Jagdeep Dhankhar as Vice President.

It was perhaps in the legislative sphere that the divide appeared the greatest, with the BJP pushing through contentious Bills: from the Waqf Bill in the first half of the year to the VB G RAM G Bill to replace the MGNREGA Act towards the fag end.

Adding to that was the tussle between Governors and Opposition-governed states over the stalling of legislation and Rahul Gandhi’s vote theft charges targeting the BJP and the Election Commission.

The only two elections — in Delhi in the beginning of the year and in Bihar towards the end — saw the BJP and its allies decimating the Opposition.

Arvind Kejriwal and Tejashwi Yadav sank, and Prashant Kishor failed to even surface. Nitish Kumar remained invincible and Chirag Paswan got his moment in the sun. Rahul Gandhi kept repeating his vote chori charge, with little evidence that it was sticking.

The BJP’s cultural, ideological and appropriation projects, too, marched on — the unveiling of a statue of V D Savarkar in the Andaman and Nicobar islands, the marking of the 150 years of Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay’s Vande Mataram, the 150th birth anniversary celebrations of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel and Modi’s repeated invocation of the need for India to rid what he calls a “Macaulayan mindset”

The coming year, too, could be fascinating. It’s another big election year, challenging for both the BJP and the Opposition parties. The Indian economy is on an upswing but the falling rupee and unemployment remain a hot button issue. Here is a look at the developments that could shape the political discourse in India in 2026 and beyond.

Crucial state elections in 2026

The BJP has been on an electoral upswing after its less-than-impressive Lok Sabha win in 2024. Barring Jharkhand, it won it all — Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi, Bihar. While Jammu and Kashmir went to the Opposition, the BJP put up a creditable performance in the Jammu region.

The Opposition desperately needs some wind in its sails and the next cycle of elections are crucial, even the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation polls to begin with in the middle of January.

The local polls to India’s richest municipality will be followed by the big electoral tests in West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry, all in the first half of the year.

West Bengal: Undoubtedly the most fascinating contest. The BJP is once again making a determined bid to oust Mamata Banerjee. But the Trinamool Congress’s presence on the ground is unmatched and Banerjee remains a formidable force all these years later.

And unlike in other states, a polarised election will not help the BJP alone here. The TMC commands the support of an estimated 30 percent of the Muslim electorate.

For the Left parties and the Congress, which drew a blank last time, making a dent will be an uphill battle.

Tamil Nadu: The entry of popular actor Vijay makes the otherwise bipolar electoral landscape in Tamil Nadu both interesting and unpredictable. The ruling DMK, with its welfare-populist governance model, was sitting pretty knowing that the AIADMK is a splintered and weakened force.

But there are many moving parts and many questions now with Vijay’s entry. Will he divide anti-DMK votes? Will he cut into the votes of every party? Will he enter into an informal tie up with the AIADMK to prevent anti-incumbency vote split? Will the welfare-populist politics of the M K Stalin government help it to a second straight term?

Assam: Once again a test for the Congress. The party has been out of power for a decade now. The ruling BJP has a formidable electoral coalition, comprising the AGP and the UPPL, and often uses the rhetoric of polarisation to great effect. The Congress too has cobbled together a coalition comprising CPI(M), Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, CPI, CPI(ML), Jatiya Dal-Asom and the Karbi Anglong-based All Party Hill Leaders Conference. Its decision not to ally with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) could risk fragmenting Muslim votes.

Kerala: Will test a competition within the larger INDIA bloc. If the outcome of the recent local body elections are any indication, the Left in Kerala is on a weak wicket and the mood in the Congress camp is jubilant. If the Left is voted out, it will be the first time in five decades that India will not have a Communist chief minister. It will be a test for the BJP as well which is hoping to secure a double-digit tally for the first time.

The second half of the year will see the drums rolling for the battle royale in Uttar Pradesh in early 2027. This period will also mark the run-up to the elections in Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa.

One Nation, One Election

Some time next year, India and its political class will once again hotly debate the idea of synchronised elections, a proposal which is both contentious and disruptive. For long, the abrogation of Article 370, the construction of a Ram Temple in Ayodhya and the implementation of a Uniform Civil Code had been front and centre of the BJP’s ideology. The party is adding more layers, the most important of which is its “decolonisation” project. Another key political project is synchronised elections.

Parliament will take up at least two contentious and polarising Constitution Amendment Bills in 2026 — one to synchronise Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, and the other to remove a central or state minister who is facing allegations of corruption or serious offences and has been detained for at least 30 days. Since both are Constitution Amendment Bills, the ruling BJP will have to walk the extra mile.

Such a Bill requires a special majority to pass — more than 50% of the total membership of the House and two-thirds of members present and voting. The BJP does not have that kind of majority in both Houses. Both Bills are now being examined by Parliamentary panels and will generate much political heat when they come to Parliament.

The Maoism challenge

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has set a deadline of March 2026 to root out Left-wing insurgency from the country. The year saw major anti-Maoist operations in many states, elimination of some of its top leaders and surrenders by many. Except for that of the much-weakened Left, there is not much political opposition to the Centre’s aggressive security operation to stomp out Maoist insurgency.

After all, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, too, had in 2009 called Left-wing insurgency India’s greatest internal security threat. Whether the Centre achieves its goal or not, expect plenty of debate about the UPA’s handling of the insurgency versus the NDA’s.

Census

The long-delayed decadal Census exercise will kick off next year. It will be the country’s first digital census, and the first in independent India to include a headcount of castes as well.

The first phase of the mammoth exercise — the Houselisting and Housing Census — will be held from April to September. Population Enumeration will follow in February 2027.

The delay in the Census exercise — it will be carried out after an unprecedented 16-year gap — had triggered a political firestorm.

The debate around the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies, which is mandated to happen following the Census conducted after the year 2026, will surely intensify. Parties in power in the southern states fear they will lose proportional representation in Parliament if delimitation is based on population alone.

While the process will begin only after the final population data is out, the Centre is already said to be considering various proposals to find a middle ground. There are indications that population will not be the only criterion for delimitation.

New leadership in BJP, Opposition strategy

The BJP will formally unveil its new leadership in the first half of next year. The ruling party is expected to formally elect Nitin Nabin, the 45-year-old Bihar minister and five-term MLA, as its president.

Nabin has his task cut out to continue the BJP’s winning streak. His biggest challenge will be to ensure that the BJP breaks new ground in Bengal and the South. Once formally anointed, all eyes will be on Nabin’s new team. Prime Minister Modi is also expected to make changes in his Cabinet and Council of Ministers. It is in many ways a crucial year for the BJP and its unwritten theme of continuity with change.

The Opposition, on the other hand, is in disarray. The Congress has given its first signals that it is keen to direct its focus back to livelihood issues — key among them the changes made to the rural job guarantee architecture — to attack the government given that the vote theft campaign has failed to create ripples on the ground. Rahul Gandhi, though, is unlikely to relent on the vote chori pitch, despite disagreements within the Opposition on the issue.

Rajya Sabha biennial elections

As many as 59 Rajya Sabha seats across 17 states will fall vacant in April and June next year. The Congress, which has 27 seats in the Upper House, may make a minor gain, courtesy Karnataka.

And the NDA, given the present composition of state Assemblies, is set to improve its tally.

In Maharashtra, for instance, the NDA now has three of the seven seats which will fall vacant. The number may go up to six. In Andhra Pradesh, NDA constituent TDP has just one of the four seats which are falling vacant. It may get all four now. In Bihar, the NDA has three of the five seats falling vacant now. It is in a position to bag all five.