And every vote will count

In a historic turn-out for the first round of the French presidential elections, voters have expressed their desire for a clear choice. And for change

On a magnificent sunny Sunday, 84.6 per cent of France8217;s 40 million voters cast their ballots. Young and old, often accompanied by their children, they queued for hours at overwhelmed voting stations, as they had never done before. The buzz was everywhere; the excitement surrounding an election was so new. This historical turnout 8212; unseen since 1965 8212; is the first lesson of France8217;s presidential election8217;s first round, and a victory for democracy. In 2002, a low turnout and general disillusion with the political system had enabled far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen to make it to the run-off against Jacques Chirac. The desire to block the xenophobic and racist candidate united the rest of the country, which granted Chirac a second term at the Elyseacute;e, but deprived France of a real debate. The shockwaves and shame it sent through French society resonated in this Sunday8217;s turnout with voters determined to obliterate this bad souvenir and ensure a real run-off on May 6.

The second lesson of the election is that voters chose clarity. By granting Nicolas Sarkozy and Seacute;golegrave;ne Royal a very sharp advance on all other contenders, they expressed their desire for a clear choice between Left and Right, between two different systems, philosophies and personalities. Right wing candidate Sarkozy has a clear lead with 31.1 per cent, partly because he was very successful in attracting far Right voters. Socialist Royal accumulated 25.8 per cent, as she galvanised Left-wing voters in choosing her, rather than smaller Leftist parties, in order to avoid another 2002-style debacle. And this is the third major lesson of Sunday8217;s elections: the extremes have shrunk significantly in France. And more strikingly, 2007 will be remembered as a resounding defeat for Jean-Marie Le Pen, who attained its worse score since 1974, with only 10.5 per cent of the votes.

So paradoxically, even though its candidate Franccedil;ois Bayrou did not make it to the run-off, the emergence of the centre as a powerful political force is the fourth lesson of April 22: Bayrou8217;s 18.5 per cent votes are key to either candidate8217;s victory. The election on May 6 will be won at the centre. Negotiations with Bayrou8217;s UDF party in the coming two weeks will be intense, both regarding its involvement in the government and alliances for the upcoming parliamentary elections. Besides, Sarkozy and Royal have already begun courting those voters in their post-election speeches. More than anything else though, both used words stressing the need for change 8212; they understand that the colossal turnout on Sunday is a message from the French people, who know that change at this stage is vital.

By the mere fact of being both in their fifties, compared to decades of presidents in their late sixties or seventies, they already represent a refreshing prospect for the country. Seacute;golegrave;ne being the first woman to ever reach the second round is also a statement of change. Sunday night, Nicolas Sarkozy called for a new French dream, in a fraternal republic where no one will be afraid. Seacute;golegrave;ne Royal vowed to invent a new France, beating up its demons of depression and decline by reforming it without brutalising it. But beyond those words, how will they implement change? Sarkozy believes in French people working harder, in lowering taxes and obstacles to job creation, with a tough law-and-order overall approach. But he also showed as finance minister to be capable of interventionist and protectionist policies. And after a campaign already full of contradictory promises, the need to both maintain far-Right votes and convince new centrist ones, will only increase his ambiguities: 8220;I want to say to all the French who are afraid, that I want to protect them against violence, against delinquency, against unfair competition, against outsourcing8221;. This is far from the free-market stances he used to have.

We find similar confusion on Seacute;golegrave;ne8217;s side: while she first dared praise Blairism and some Nordic style reforms, she then mostly embraced the Socialist party platform, often made of orthodox antiquated propositions. The lack of clarity on her economic positions has definitely motivated many to choose Bayrou instead of her. Her task is now to bring them back. And doing so would be her only chance in winning the run-off. Indeed, all polls show at the moment a clear victory for Sarkozy. So she has to galvanise the 8220;anti-Sarko8221; sentiment, rallying all those who fear his tough law-and-order positions and divisive figure. In fact, despite the UMP candidate8217;s desire to place the second round as a debate between two ideologies, the battle to win the French presidential race will also be a clash of personalities.

The coming two weeks of campaign promise to be intense and exciting: this Sunday8217;s mobilisation shows the desire of the French people for change. Whoever will be elected on May 6 will have a strong mandate to implement it, with strong exigency and expectation by all. Only with such a mandate could change be implemented in a country generally so fearful of it. The winner shall hopefully not miss that historic chance.

The writer is a French journalist