Ukraine war update, March 15: India considers buying Russian oil; ICJ provisional order on Russia this week

The cost of the war is heaviest for civilians caught in the fighting. The United Nations said 636 civilians had died in the war until March 13, but cautioned that the number could be much higher. There is no verified count of the number of combatants killed in the war.

The UN says more than 4,300 births have occurred in Ukraine since the start of the war and 80,000 Ukrainian women are expected to give birth in the next three months, warning that oxygen and medical supplies, including for the management of pregnancy complications, are running dangerously low. [https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113842]

A refugee fleeing the war looks out a bus window after crossing the border, at the Romanian-Ukrainian border, in Siret, Romania, Monday, March 14, 2022. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru)

A Russian TV channel staffer protested against the war on air.

In an extraordinary act of protest, an editor at the Russian Channel One television, Marina Ovsyannikova, stormed into the channel’s main news programme shouting “Stop the war”, and holding a poster that said “No War” in English, and “Don’t believe the propaganda, they are lying to you here” in Russian.

The woman on that video is 1 Channel employee Marina Ovsyannikiva. She also recorded a video saying that her father is Ukranian and her mother is Russian. She said she is ashamed of having been working for Kremlin’s propaganda and urged Russians to stop Putin. She was detained pic.twitter.com/iZ37YdyzBP

— Natalia Smolentceva (@ananats) March 14, 2022

The state-owned Tass news agency said the channel is conducting an internal review of the incident.

Meanwhile, India is considering buying Russian oil. It could be a test for New Delhi’s diplomacy, and of the extent to which the West is willing to accommodate India.

Despite the US sanctions against Russia, New Delhi is considering buying oil from Moscow that is being offered at discounted prices, a move that will test how much the US-Western alliance is willing to accommodate India-Russia ties.

In Rajya Sabha, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said the government would “explore all options”. He said he had had conversations “at the appropriate level” of the Russian Federation.

“Discussions are currently under way. There are several issues to be gone into like how much oil is available either in Russia or in new markets or with new suppliers which may be coming into the market. Also there are issues relating to insurance, freight and a host of other issues including the payment arrangements,” Puri said.

India imports 84 per cent of its oil requirements, and so far, only about 2 to 3 per cent of this has come from Russia.

A statement from Moscow last week said Puri spoke with Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Earlier, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had said in a media interaction that Russia had made an “open offer” to sell its oil at a discount, but India had to take into account several other factors before making the decision to buy.

India has held to its neutral stance on the war despite pressure from the US-Europe alliance to condemn the Russian invasion. New Delhi has declared that it stands for the UN Charter and the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all nations, but has abstained from voting on resolutions against Russia at the United Nations.

So far, US officials have been saying they understand India’s need to keep relations with Russia going due to its massive defence partnership — India buys 60 per cent of its defence requirements from Russia. They have also said that New Delhi is gradually weaning itself away from Moscow by diversifying its weapons purchases, and that the sanctions are so sweeping that doing business with Russia would become impossible for any country.

If India buys oil from Russia, it would have to devise a way around the sanctions for payments, and shipping the oil out plus finding insurance for the freight. Whether the US is prepared to overlook this is another question.

Conversely, it could act as a pressure point on the US to persuade its friends in OPEC such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to ramp up output and release more oil into the market to cool prices. Last week, the UAE ambassador in Washington did say that such a move was being considered.

Just this statement, on March 9, caused the biggest fall in oil prices in two years, a decline of 13.2 per cent on March 9 to settle at $ 111.14 a barrel.

Ukrainian firefighters hold a photograph, found in the rubble, as they work in a resident building after it was hit by artillery shelling in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, March 14, 2022. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)

The International Court of Justice order on Ukraine’s plea is coming on Wednesday.

The International Court of Justice at The Hague will announce on Wednesday (March 16) its order on Ukraine’s plea for provisional measures in the proceedings it has instituted against Russia. The order will be delivered at 4 pm local time, or 8.30 pm India time.

Ukraine has asked the court to order that an immediate suspension of Russia’s military operations against Ukraine, and assurances that no action is taken that may aggravate the dispute.

Kyiv instituted proceedings against Russia at the ICJ on February 26, two days after it was invaded, under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Genocide Convention).

Ukraine’s application says Russia’s use of the word genocide as a pretext for its invasion is unjustified. Russian President Vladimir Putin had used the term in his address to the Russian people on February 24. In his announcement of special military operations against Ukraine, he said the goal would be to defend people who had been suffering persecution and genocide by Kyiv.

“The risk that Russia will irreparably harm Ukraine and its people in the name of preventing and punishing a non-existent genocide is very real. Unless Russia halts its military operation, Ukraine’s plausible claim that Russia is violating and abusing the Convention will only be heard when it is too late,” Ukraine’s lawyer Harold Koh argued at the first hearing on March 7.

Ukraine’s plea to the court for indication of provisional measures came because the ICJ could take months or even years to decide the case.

A view of destroyed apartments damaged by shelling, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Sunday, March 13, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Marienko)

“President Putin’s short game is force. The world’s long game is law. For other institutions to do their job inside and outside the UN system, first [the ICJ should do its job]. … But if [it] does not act decisively … rest assured this will not be the last such case.”

Russia has refused to participate in the ICJ hearings, and the court will deliver an ex parte order.

“The fact that Russian seats are empty speaks loudly,” Anton Korynevych, Ukraine’s representative to the ICJ, said in his opening speech in the Court.

“They are not here in this court of law. They are on the battlefield waging aggressive war against [Ukraine]. This is how Russia solves disputes.”

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