India coronavirus numbers explained: Despite the high recovery rate, most people still falling sick

There is nothing special about the recovery rate increasing steadily. By the time the epidemic comes to an end, more than 99 per cent people would have recovered, as the death rate is expected to fall to less than one per cent. In the meanwhile, however, the daily numbers of new cases and recoveries can give us an indication of how soon that stage is likely to be reached.

The daily new cases and recoveries in India.

If the daily recoveries start to outnumber the new cases being detected, and this trend holds on for at least two weeks, then it could be a signal that a decline in the spread of the disease was nearby. This is because such a situation would lead to a reduction in active cases everyday. This stage has been achieved only in Delhi right now, and even here the decline is not happening consistently. While on most occasions since the start of July, the number of daily recoveries in Delhi has been greater than new cases, there have been several days, particularly this month, when this trend is reversed. Still, Delhi now has the highest recovery rate in the country, at almost 90 per cent.

Read | UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Assam biggest contributors to India’s daily numbers

Coronavirus numbers explained: Ratio of recoveries, deaths and active cases in India.

At the national level, never has the number of recoveries on a day been higher than the new cases, though there have been periods when the gap between these two numbers has been quite narrow. In the last three days for example, the new cases have outnumbered daily recoveries by 5,000 to 7,000, which is significantly lower than the gap that was being witnessed a few days ago. But there is a great deal of randomness in these numbers, as can be expected, and except for the fact that daily recoveries usually lag behind the new cases by a period of 14 days, there is no fixed trend observable.

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Coronavirus cases in India from July 16 to August 11.

Also, a higher recovery rate is no guarantee against a fresh wave of infections.

After a drop on Monday, possibly because of lower number of tests conducted over the weekend, the number of new cases in the country on Tuesday crossed the 60,000 figure once again. It has remained over that level for the entire last week now.

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Top ten states with maximum caseload

West Bengal became the seventh state in the country to cross the one-lakh figure for total number of infections. The state detected almost three thousand new cases on Tuesday which took the total number of people who have so far been infected to 1.01 lakh. More than 73,000 people, or over 72 per cent, have already recovered from the disease, while 2,100 have died.

Bihar is also racing towards the one lakh mark, being one of the fastest growing states right now. In fact, Bihar’s daily growth rate of cases now exceeds that of Andhra Pradesh, though it is still contributing less than half the number of cases compared to Andhra Pradesh every day. So far, almost 87,000 people in Bihar have been found to be infected. There were less than 10,000 cases at the start of July. But the death count in Bihar is one of the lowest in the country. With just 465 deaths recorded in the state, it is certainly lowest among the ten states with the highest caseload.

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