India coronavirus numbers explained: Only the US, Brazil & Russia have higher caseloads

On Thursday, India’s confirmed infections were more than 4.9 lakh, and with an average of more than 15,000 new cases being detected every day in the last one week, the half a million mark is almost certain to be crossed today. If that happens, India would have added the last one lakh cases in just about a week. In fact, this month had started with less than two lakh cases, and by the time it ends, more than three lakh cases would have been added, possibly even four lakh.

The number of new cases daily since June 1

The growth rate of total infections has begun to rise again in the last four days, after showing a declining trend for more than a month. It had dropped to an all-time low of 3.59 per cent (7-day compounded daily growth rate) on June 21, before beginning to rise. On Thursday, it had climbed up to 3.67 per cent. Consequently, the doubling time of cases have declined from just over 20 days to about 19.63 days now.

The surge is coming mainly from Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, though on Thursday, Maharashtra too seems to have joined in. Maharashtra, the state with the highest caseload in the country, had been consistently showing a declining growth rate, but on Thursday reported 4,841 new cases, an unusually high number considering the recent trends. Health officials said the higher number could be the result of an increased number of tests. For the last ten days, the state has been testing an average of more than 17,000 samples every day, which is slightly more than the 13,000 to 14,000 samples it was testing earlier. On Thursday, the state tested more than 24,000 samples.

The growth rate since May 1

In Delhi, which has added more than 23,000 cases in the last one week, the surge can surely be attributed to the increase in testing. The city has been testing between 15,000 and 19,000 samples every day. Same is the case with Telangana, which is now, for the last about ten days, testing between 3,000 and 3,500 cases every day, compared to less than 500 cases on an average earlier.

The numbers in Maharashtra are likely to increase sharply once Mumbai and Pune begin the newly-approved rapid antigen testing. Both the cities have ordered one lakh rapid antigen kits to enable them to test more widely.

Meanwhile, the central government has decided to dispatch technical teams to Maharashtra, Telangana and Gujarat for consultations on containing the further spread of the disease. Officials in Delhi said the still low testing numbers in Telangana was a cause of concern, while in Maharashtra the high fatality numbers was something that needed to be controlled.

Top ten states with maximum caseload: