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Jio IPO may unlock value, but RIL shareholders unlikely to gain directly

A separate listing would have been a straightforward value unlock for investors if RIL chose to demerge Jio Infocomm and distribute its shares directly, similar to the earlier Jio Financial Services spin-off.

Reliance Jio IPO: Reliance Chairman and Managing Director Mukesh Ambani addresses the annual shareholders' meeting of Reliance Industries in Mumbai on Friday

Reliance Chairman and Managing Director Mukesh Ambani addresses the annual shareholders' meeting of Reliance Industries in Mumbai on Friday. (Photo: PTI)

Reliance Jio Infocomm’s proposed public listing in the first half of 2026 is expected to fetch the telecom giant a clear, independent valuation upwards of $100 billion, but markets remain doubtful about any significant windfall for Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) shareholders. Analysts currently peg Jio’s worth in the $111-154 billion range, factoring in both telecom and digital businesses.

A separate listing would have been a straightforward value unlock for investors if RIL chose to demerge Jio Infocomm and distribute its shares directly, similar to the earlier Jio Financial Services spin-off. In that case, every RIL shareholder would own two listed companies instead of one, instantly lifting overall wealth. However, with no sign of a demerger on the table, the proposed IPO will not directly enrich shareholders.

The lack of clarity dampened investor sentiment, and RIL stock slipped nearly 2.21 per cent on Friday even as Mukesh Ambani’s AGM announcements created market buzz. “The disappointment stems from the fact that existing shareholders won’t gain directly from the Jio telecom IPO in 2026,” said Hariprasad K, founder, Livelong Wealth.

However, analysts said the possibility of India slowing down on Russian crude oil imports also impacted the stock.

Instead, the IPO is expected to serve as a profitable exit route for private equity funds, sovereign wealth funds and global technology players that invested heavily in Jio Platforms in 2020, said an analyst.

At the time, these investors came in at a valuation of $50 billion. With the IPO now aiming at valuations of $100 billion and above, early investors stand to double their money. Meta had invested $5.7 billion, while Google separately infused $4.5 billion into Jio Platforms, Jio Infocomm’s parent company.

Ambani did not specify how much Reliance plans to raise from the issue, but market estimates suggest the IPO could bring in around Rs 30,000-40,000 crore, making it India’s largest-ever public offering. “Based on our valuation and Sebi’s recent proposal for reducing stake dilution limit to 2.5 per cent, JPL’s IPO could be the largest in India with a size of Rs 30,000 crore,” said a Motilal Oswal Financial Services report.

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While the exact valuation will ultimately depend on investor appetite and market conditions, most analysts expect it to comfortably cross the $100 billion mark. For now, the biggest beneficiaries of the public issue are likely to be Jio’s global investors, while RIL shareholders may need to wait longer for a direct payoff.

For RIL, the offering still holds strategic benefits. Its shares often trade at a “holding company discount” because the conglomerate bundles multiple businesses, making it harder for investors to assign a clear value to each. A separate listing for Jio Infocomm would reduce that discount by giving the telecom arm an independent valuation, indirectly lifting RIL’s market worth.