With Bihar politics in ferment, Nitish faces lame duck heat as Tejashwi inches closer to CM role

The Bihar RJD’s president Jagdanand Singh was forthright in an interview to The Indian Express earlier this week, when he suggested that Nitish should relinquish the Bihar CM’s post for Tejashwi to focus on national politics. “Nitish should leave smaller things (CM post) for bigger things (PM post),” he said, citing the example of VP Singh who had quit the then Rajiv Gandhi Cabinet as a minister and went on to become the PM.

Most RJD leaders echo Jagdanand Singh’s views, who is like a father-figure to Tejashwi. Singh had been upset with Lalu when during the RJD’s national executive meet in September in Delhi the latter authorised only Tejashwi to speak on crucial party matters. Tejashwi however recently managed to persuade Singh to resume his work as the state party chief after a hiatus of 44 days.

A senior RJD leader said: “Most of us are in agreement with what Singh said (on Nitish and Tejashwi). If it has to be Tejashwi’s leadership, he should lead the alliance as CM. It is all a matter of timing now”. He said the Grand Alliances loss in two of three Assembly bypolls in recent months has been a matter of concern. “By the logic of our social combination of seven parties coming together against the BJP, all three bypoll seats should have been a cakewalk for us. We are seriously worried if Nitish Kumar’s core constituency of OBCs, Kurmi-Koeri (Luv-Kush), a fair chunk of EBCs and Mahadalits (Scheduled Castes) is gelling well with us as it had done in the 2015 Assembly polls when we (along with Congress) had won 178 of 243 Bihar seats despite PM Narendra Modi being at the peak of his popularity.”

Another RJD section however believes that Nitish should stay as the CM until the 2024 general elections irrespective of its outcome. RJD national vice president Shivanand Tiwari said: “The biggest challenge before us is the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Its outcome will have its bearing on the 2025 elections. The 2024 polls would tell us how the alliance had been working and if there had been a mutual transfer of votes. If we get 30 plus seats (out of the stater’s total 40 Lok Sabha seats), BJP might not be able to get a majority.”

Then, there is a third section of the RJD leaders, who have continued to be wary of Nitish’s political moves given his flip-flop-flips in recent years. “What if he takes another U-turn? In that case, we would like Tejashwi in the CM chair sooner rather than later,” said a senior RJD leader.

Tejashwi’s silence over this entire episode is being seen as signs of his “political maturity as well indecisiveness”.

On his part, Nitish might be in a catch-22 over his government’s liquor prohibition policy, which is perceived to be turning into an albatross around his neck, especially in the wake of the recent Saran hooch tragedy in which over 80 people reportedly lost their lives although officially its toll was said to be 45.

Speaking on this hooch tragedy in the state Assembly during its just-concluded winter session, Nitish said there was “no question of giving compensation” to the hooch victims’ families. He even went on to ask the House: “Aap log boliye to sharab bandi khatm kar dein (if you people suggest we would revoke the liquor prohibition).”

This is the first instance when Nitish seems to have expressed his doubts on liquor ban. He knows that the recurrent hooch-related deaths have been making him unpopular and might make a dent in his political capital. After all, most of these victims or those being booked under the alcohol ban law are poor belonging to the OBC, EBC and Dalit communities, which form the core of his support base in the state.

The Nitish-led government has already amended the prohibition law thrice, striking off most of its stringent provisions. Now, one can also get away with paying fine of Rs 2,000-Rs 5,000 for the first drinking offence. Yet, hooch deaths are being reported from different parts of the state at regular intervals. The attempts of the state’s bureaucrats and police to downplay the hooch deaths data might also hurt Nitish politically.

The CM knows the state police is overburdened and that the courts also face additional pressure due to the 2016 prohibition law. Over four lakh cases have since been lodged in these cases, but the conviction rate in them is less than one per cent. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) team’s visit to Saran has further embarrassed the state government at the national level. Further, the state not paying compensation to the victims despite the rules being in place also puts the Nitish dispensation in the dock.

Nitish has sought to take a high moral ground on prohibition by invoking Mahatma Gandhi and the Directive Principles of State Policy. In a bid to score points in this regard, he has made several controversial remarks such as “Piyoge to maroge (you will die if you drink), “Mai peenewalon ko Hindustani nahi manta (I do not consider drinkers as Indians) and “Peenewala mahapapi aur ayogya hai (Drinkers are great sinners and incapable people)”.

Nitish’s critics say that the longest-serving CM of Bihar seems to be losing the plot, both as a politician and an administrator. Even the JD(U) finds it difficult to defend him now. If he does not reinvent himself soon he might run the risk of being reduced to just a lame duck CM for the remaining few years of his tenure.