Naga political solution not in sight, to cast shadow on Assembly polls

The state’s ruling alliance led by the National Democratic People’s Party (NDPP) and the BJP is uniquely situated with no Opposition in the 60-member Assembly, but it has other political challenges.

In 2018, the NDPP (18 MLAs) and the BJP (12 MLAs) came together with the National People’s Party (2 MLAs) to form the government after the BJP broke its ties with its long-time ally, the Naga People’s Front (NPF). At the time, the NPF had won 26 seats, the single largest number.

There have only been more dramatic changes since then. In 2021, the NPF and Independents decided to join the NDPP-BJP alliance to seek a collective solution to the Nagaland problem.

But the heat is on the NDPP and BJP alliance who are contesting the polls on a 40:20 seat sharing basis. Alongside parties, pressure has been mounting from the Naga National Political groups (NNPGs) that has accused the state BJP of “playing with fire” by going ahead with elections without an accepted political settlement. NNPGs is the joint banner of seven armed Naga outfits that joined the peace talks after renewed negotiations between the Union government and the NSCN (IM), the state’s largest rebel group, in 2015.

Formal talks are said to have concluded in October 2019, but a final agreement has not been arrived at. A stalemate continues over the NSCN (IM)’s demand for a separate Naga national flag and constitution.

The ruling alliance has, however, mostly played down the pressure.

“Everybody wants a solution, but that will depend on the negotiating parties, not the general public, which can only put pressure. Even the 60 members (MLAs), who are facilitators, are putting pressure. We are working with everybody. But the outcome will depend on the negotiating parties,” said Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio recently. He added that not going ahead with elections would result in a “constitutional crisis” and a “law and order problem”.

State BJP Chief Temjen Imna Along had earlier told The Indian Express that elections and the negotiation for a political settlement are two parallel issues.

The NPF, which was in power in the state from 2003 to 2018 along with the BJP as part of the Democratic Alliance of Nagaland, is leaving all options open. In April 2022, the NPF’s fortunes took a hit when 21 of its legislators decided to merge with the NDPP and reduced it to four. The party is now contesting the election alone and is looking to contest 25 to 30 seats. In 2018, it contested 58 seats and won 26.

“We should be able to win double digit seats. We have already made a strategy or a policy to have a ‘pre poll understanding for post poll alliance’. We will maintain equal closeness with all parties and only after polls, we will take on an alliance for government formation,” said NPF Legislative Party leader Azo Nienu.

The Congress, which had once been a strong Oppositional figure in the state, drew a blank in the 2018 election. However, it is hoping to mobilize discontent against the lack of a settlement in its favour.

“The BJP has betrayed the people of Nagaland. They have betrayed their mandate because they had made a promise of ‘Election for Solution’ in 2018,” state Congress president K. Therie said.

As per Congress office-bearers, the party is hoping to find common ground with the Church, which remains influential for the state’s majority Christian community, and the NNPGs. It is also exploring alliances with “like-minded parties”.

“There is anti-incumbency, especially regarding the lies of the two parties on creating a political solution…At the same time, in the guise of the Naga political issue, the state government has withdrawn from the main mandate of any government which is development… We are optimistic because there are sections of civil society, the NNPGs, the Church who all want the same thing as us – development and a political solution. We want to look at a secular alliance because we need to stop the forces of Hindutva reaching the state through a backdoor entry. We are talking to other like-minded parties including the NPF. Let’s see how that works out,” All India Congress Committee (AICC) Secretary in charge of Nagaland, Ranajit Mukherjee said.

Meanwhile, the NDPP-BJP alliance still has details to iron out before announcing their candidate lists.

“We are very confident, we have a coalition which has performed well… We will be contesting under 40 to 20 seat sharing basis as our central leadership decided a few weeks ago. Which specific seats each party will contest will be decided by the central leadership,” state BJP state in charge Nalin Kohli said.