Haryana effect? Rahul warns Maharashtra Congress leaders against ‘overconfidence’

Having managed to restrict the BJP well short of a majority in the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress went into the Assembly elections in Haryana and J&K on a confident note but the outcome had been morale sapping and debilitating for the principle Opposition force. A bigger challenge awaits the Opposition and the Congress in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

The key first challenge before the INDIA bloc is to arrive at an amicable seat sharing pact in the three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition in Maharashtra, where the three constituents — the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP(SP) — are all hopeful of ousting the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP government, taking heart from the alliance’s better than expected showing in the Lok Sabha elections.

The MVA registered a remarkable performance in the Lok Sabha elections, eclipsing the BJP-Sena-NCP’s Mahayuti coalition. The Congress is eyeing more seats after its impressive performance in Maharashtra. The NCP(SP) and the Sena (UBT), too, are gearing up for some tough bargaining. The Haryana verdict and the Jammu results, in a way, have robbed the Congress of bragging rights.

The Congress had won 13 of the 30 seats secured by the INDIA bloc in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha polls. The Sena (UBT) and the NCP(SP) won nine and eight seats each. The other contentious issue is regarding projection of a chief ministerial face. The Sena (UBT) is keen that Uddhav Thackeray is named the CM face but the Congress is reluctant over it. Having emerged as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress is fancying its chances to occupy the top post in the event of the alliance coming to power in the state.

The Congress leaders argue that it is the only party in the MVA with a pan-Maharashtra presence and hence should contest the most seats in Assembly polls. Among the MVA parties, the Congress performed the best in the Lok Sabha elections, winning 13 of the 17 seats it contested. The Sena (UBT) could win nine of the 21 seats it contested while the NCP(SP) won eight of the 10 constituencies where it put up candidates.

In the Congress leadership’s Monday meeting with Maharashtra leaders, the unanimous view that emerged was that the alliance need not project a CM face. The Congress wants to contest in as many as 110-115 seats of the total 288, leaving 90-95 seats for the Sena (UBT) and 80-85 seats for the NCP (SP).

The next challenge is to mount a united campaign and create a narrative that the MVA can defeat the BJP, whose confidence is sky-high after the Haryana and J&K polls.

In Jharkhand, the Congress is a junior partner but there again seat-sharing is going to be key. In the last Assembly elections, the JMM contested in 43 of the 81 seats and won 30. The Congress won 16 of the 31 seats where it had fielded candidates. The JMM had a better strike rate. The RJD, which was part of the alliance, contested seven seats and won one seat. This time, the CPI(ML), a constituent of the INDIA bloc, is also keen to be part of the alliance. It had contested in 15 seats and won one last time.

The JMM and the Congress are seeking more seats than last time which could complicate the talks. The Congress is asking for 33 seats pointing out that two MLAs — one from the BJP and another from Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) – had joined the party. Unlike in Maharashtra, the JMM-Congress combine has to battle a perception of anti-incumbency in Jharkhand.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the NDA had a lead in 49 of the 81 Assembly segments in Jharkhand. The BJP alone led in 46 segments. The JMM led in 14 Assembly segments and the Congress in 15, putting the INDIA bloc’s total at 29. Independents led in two other Assembly segments and the BSP in one. What gives the JMM-Congress combine hope is the fact that the BJP has suffered some losses in the Lok Sabha elections with its tally coming down from 11 to 8. Of the 14 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP-AJSU combine won 9, down three from 2019, and the JMM-Congress alliance 5, up three from 2019.

The elections in both the states are crucial for both the BJP and the INDIA bloc at the national level. The BJP managed to arrest the perception that it was losing its grip in the Hindi heartland by registering a record third straight win in Haryana. It improved its seat tally in the Jammu region as well, although the INDIA allies National Conference and Congress managed to clinch the J&K polls. The BJP is keen to build on that narrative so that it can approach the Delhi Assembly elections, due early next year, and Bihar polls later next year on a firmer footing.

The Congress, which had assiduously built a narrative of its revival after the Lok Sabha elections, desperately needs wins under its belt to put pressure on the Narendra Modi government, which is running a coalition government at the Centre and is crucially dependent on the continuing support of the JD(U) and the TDP for its survival. There is more at stake for Rahul Gandhi as well.

The All India Congress Committee (AICC) on Tuesday appointed the election observers and coordinators for Maharashtra and Jharkhand, entrusting the responsibility to a slew of senior party leaders including sitting ministers and former CMs and Deputy CMs from various states.

For the Maharashtra polls, the party appointed 11 senior observers across various regions. For Mumbai and Konkan, it named former Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot and Karnataka minister G Parameshwara as the observers.

For Vidarbha (Amravati and Nagpur), the party has appointed ex-Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel, ex-Punjab CM Charanjit Singh Channi, and former Madhya Pradesh minister Umang Singhar as its observers.

For Marathwada, the AICC has named former Rajasthan deputy CM Sachin Pilot and Telangana minister Uttam Kumar Reddy. For Western Maharashtra, the party has picked former Chhattisgarh deputy CM TS Singhdeo and Karnataka minister MB Patil as the observers. For North Maharashtra, the party has named Rajya Sabha member Syed Naseer Hussain and Telangana minister D Anasuya Seethakka.

The AICC has also appointed two senior coordinators – Mukul Wasnik and Avinash Pande – for Maharashtra.

For the Jharkhand polls, the party has appointed Tariq Anwar, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury and Telangana deputy CM Bhatti Vikramarka Mallu.

— With inputs from Asad Rehman in New Delhi