Opinion The GREAT GAME Folio
Big powers playing the Great Game tend to underestimate the political wiles of their local partners in Afghanistan.
Canny Karzai
Big powers playing the Great Game tend to underestimate the political wiles of their local partners in Afghanistan. The British (in the 19th century) and more recently the Russians (in the 1970s and 1980s) were constantly surprised by the Afghan rulers. Contrary to the perception that outsiders dictate terms to them,it is the Afghans who excel at manipulating the intruders. Afghan rulers often outlast their external benefactors.
US President Barack Obama appears to have ignored these lessons in dealing with the Afghan leader Hamid Karzai. As it took charge in early 2009,the Obama administration made no secret of its dislike for Karzai,who it thought was not held accountable by President George W. Bush. Sensing that the Obama administration might dump him,Karzai outflanked Washington in the last few months. Washington now finds itself in a spot signalling interest in alternatives to Karzai but unable to engineer,shall we say,a regime change in Kabul.
In a recent interview to the French daily Le Figaro,Karzai presented himself as an Afghan nationalist standing up to the Americans. It is in no ones interest to have an Afghan president who has become an American puppet, Karzai declared.
Responding to corruption charges against his friends and family,the Americans attack Karzai in an underhand fashion because they want him to be more amenable. They are wrong. It is in their interest … that Afghanistans people respect their president, Karzai said,referring to himself in the third person. He reminded Washington that they have no alternative but to support him,irrespective of the charges of electoral fraud. As far as the elections are concerned,there was fraud in 2004,there is today,and there will be tomorrow. Alas,it is inevitable in a nascent democracy, Karzai added.
Taliban Talks
Amidst the Western exhaustion with the war and mounting Afghan anger against air attacks that kill large numbers of civilian population,Karzai has called for a change in the NATO military strategy and reaffirmed his readiness to engage the Taliban.
Karzai told Le Figaro that he welcomed a recent review of military strategy undertaken by US General Stanley McChrystal,who is emphasising the importance of protecting the Afghan people and end the obsession with killing the Taliban fighters.
Asked about a possible dialogue with the Taliban,Karzai said he is prepared to begin talks with the militant group within the first hundred day of re-assuming office. Karzai also confirmed that Saudi Arabia is actively involved in promoting such a dialogue and that the Obama administration is quite favourable to talks with the Taliban.
The Afghan president,however,insisted that his government will talk to only those Taliban who renounce their links with the al Qaeda and support the Afghan constitution. Talks with the Taliban might not amount to much,since it has no incentive to engage the international community that is in utter disarray.
That brings us to a paradox. The Taliban will be under pressure to talk only when the US troops gain the upper hand. If the US does pin down the Taliban and its friends,Washington will have no reason to talk to them. Put simply,talks with the Taliban are no substitute to defeating it on the battlefield.
German follies
The American disenchantment with the Europeans in general and the Germans in particular has deepened last week over a botched NATO bombing raid that killed scores of civilians.The strike was called in by a senior German officer. The German government claimed the officer feared two hijacked oil tankers,stuck in a riverbed,may be used for a suicide bombing of the German base at Kunduz,in northern Afghanistan.
Gen. McChrystal had in fact issued orders recently that US and NATO troops must call for air raids only as a last resort. He has been urging the troops to move out of their camps,do more foot patrols,and engage the people of Afghanistan.
American armies in Afghanistan have been bitterly complaining about the European soldiers for their reluctance to show up where and when it matters. On the bombing raid,the Americans are saying the German officer should have sent his troops into the riverbed to check things out rather than call for air attacks that have caused so much political damage.
The writer is Henry A Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Affairs,Library of Congress,Washington DC
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